The Stallions lost one of the best runners in the state to graduation - and they're on track to be even better as a team than they were in 2015.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
Did you think Madera South was strong last year? Did you think their prospects would decline when Eduardo Herrera graduated? What if I tell you there's a very good chance the Stallions will actually be better in 2016? Consider: their 2015 state meet squad, which finished 4th in Division 1, only had 2 seniors (Lalo and #7 runner Diose Ramirez). Those returners have almost certainly gotten much better since the end of the fall season - over the last 3 seasons, Madera South has done a better job of consistent year-to-year improvement than any other top boys' program in the state. The Stallions also had an very good track season, with returning #1 runner Miguel Villar looking like he's ready to step into his departed teammate's shoes after running 9:04 in the 3200. Similarly, Victor Ochoa looks like he's ready to challenge for a top 3 spot, solidifying a strong 2-5 pack. This team is deeper than you see at first glance, too, with 6 guys within 17 seconds of each other in the 3 Mile that will be fighting for the 4-7 spots this fall. Sorry to any teams that may have thought the Central Section was up for grabs this year - the Stallions are still the team to beat in 2016, and they could very well be on the podium at the state meet.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 8th (5K)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 6th (4th 3200, 8th 1600)
- Improvement Rating: 1st
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"