Girls #CountdownToXC Day 2: Arcadia

The Apaches return all seven runners from the 3rd-place team in Division 1 last year, including 4 girls that will just be juniors this season.


Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season!  Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.

Arcadia finished 3rd in the 2015 Division 1 state championship race, and they return ALL SEVEN RUNNERS from that team, including 4 who were sophomores last year..  That's really the only thing you need to see to justify this placing, but there's plenty more evidence anyway.  The Apaches had the 2nd-best returning team 1600 score in the state this past spring, putting 4 under 5:10, and also had 4 runners under 11:10 in the 3200.  Track season also went a long way to easing my concern over Arcadia's depth after their daunting top 7, as the Apaches had 12 returners break 5:50 and 13 break 13:00.  This team is loaded with seniors and juniors, adding both win-now intensity and serious leadership, and their 3-year record of improvement is impressive.  The Apaches even peaked at the right time, having their best team race of the year at the state championship after overcoming an off-day at Southern Section Finals to still make it through.  Can Arcadia upset Great Oak?  That might be a stretch, but at least they're in the conversation.

Ranking Data:

  • Returning Team Ranking: 2nd (5K)
  • Combined Spring Track Ranking: 4th (5th 3200, 2nd 1600)
  • Improvement Rating: 16th

The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:

  • Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
  • Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
  • Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger.  Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
  • Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
  • A little bit of "gut feeling"