Can the Centurions replace three departed seniors and reload for another state title run? All the information we have says yes.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
Despite losing 3 seniors from their 2015 squad that won the Division 2 state championship, Saugus still has enough talent back to be considered a serious threat to repeat. Mariah Castillo and Kaylee Thompson form one of California's best 1-2 duos, and based on track results it looks like Mackenna Park is closing the gap on them. That's crucial, because the gap from 2 to 3 was the only vulnerability for the Centurions. More encouraging news: Saugus ranks 3rd in the state on our Improvement Rating metric, which means they just need to have a typical summer to develop the depth the team needs to contend in 2016. Overall team results from the spring show early evidence of this improvement, as the Centurions put 5 returning girls under 5:20 in the 1600, including one who wasn't even in the returning top 6 from last fall (Victoria Hodge). It's never easy to replace three departed seniors, but Saugus has proven to be the kind of program that can reload and continue to contend, and I expect the same to happen this fall.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 6th (5K)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 5th (4th 3200, 5th 1600)
- Improvement Rating: 3rd
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"