How can a team that narrowly missed the state meet one year become one of the top teams in the state the next year? When that team returns all 7 runners and had a monster track season, like the Mustangs.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
"You got to lose to know how to win." That timeless observation by Aerosmith applies perfectly to Eleanor Roosevelt, the riskiest pick in my countdown. On the one hand, the Mustangs finished 10th in the Southern Section Division 1 finals last year, missing the state meet by 21 points. On the other hand, that squad was composed of 4 sophomores and 3 juniors, so they have all 7 back for 2016 (and there are 3 more rising seniors in the 16's to provide depth). All 7 ran season bests in the Southern Section prelims, which indicates the team was highly focused on that race and getting into the finals, and may have run out of steam the next weekend. The goal for this fall is obviously to get to the state meet, but I think Roosevelt can run in the top 5 in Clovis. Their track times back that up: Roosevelt ranked 5th in the state for returning team 3200, led by Raymon Ornelas and his 9:08 time, with 4 other returners under 10. Returning #6 runner Isaiah Madrigal made a huge leap forward in the spring, running 4:21 to equal Ornelas. In addition, this team has one of the best Improvement Ratings of the 60+ teams we examined, and that indicates real improvement from year to year over the past 3 seasons. Eleanor Roosevelt is loaded with potential, and I'm swinging for the fences to predict the Mustangs will be among the state's best this fall.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 6th (3 Miles)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 8th (5th 3200, 10th 1600)
- Improvement Rating: 13th
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"