The Jackrabbits return 6th from the squad that finished 7th in D1 last year, and their track results indicate a team poised to make a big step forward.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
You can make a strong case that Long Beach Poly was even better than their 7th-place finish in the Division 1 race at the CIF State Meet last year. The Jackrabbits ran well there, but were more strung out among their top 4 than normal. And they return 6 of the 7 runners who ran in Clovis last November, with a 32-second 1-5 split in the 3 Mile (where they rank 5th in California) and a 54-second 1-5 split in the 5K (10th in the state). Depth is a bit of a concern - there is a gap between Poly's front 5 and the other returners (or after their 6th if you look at 5K times). One interesting thing caught my eye regarding the Jackrabbits' spring season: they put 8 returners under 12 minutes in the 3200, as opposed to only 3 in 2015 and only 1 in 2014. That could indicate increased year-round buy-in from the cross country runners and/or a shift in program philosophy, and it's a very good sign for the development of their fall team. In particular, Melissa Tanaka and Brenda Rosales had strong track seasons, running faster 1600 times than the team's returning 1 & 2 runners (Fillipow and O'Leary). The Jackrabbits also discovered two new top-7 caliber runners in Leslie Diaz and Lexie Reker. That helps offset their depth issues and relatively average Improvement Rating, and it gives me the feeling that this is a program on the rise. I think Poly will crack the top 5 in the Division 1 race this year, and might threaten for a podium finish as a team.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 5th (3 Miles)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 14th (10th 3200, 18th 1600)
- Improvement Rating: 28th
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"