The highest of my "sleeper" picks for this season, the Diablos have every indication of being a state meet team in 2016 after missing out in 2015.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
By many standards, Mission Viejo belonged in the 2015 CIF state meet, but results don't always match those kinds of expectations. The Diablos won the Sea View league and qualified for the Southern Section finals with a prelims race that put them essentially even with other eventual state meet qualifiers. That's when the wheels came off, as a handful of their regulars had poor performances on the unforgiving Mt. SAC course that caused the team to fall short of a trip to Clovis. I don't know if injuries or bad luck played a part in that, or if the team wore down from the championships season grind, or if it was just a bad race at the wrong time. There are some things I do know about this Mission Viejo team: they had 6 underclassmen in that Southern Section finals race that return this season, and their front 5 is separated by only 18 seconds. I also know that Luis Chavez, one of the returners from that Mt. SAC race, led the team with a 4:19 1600, helping the Diablos to the 3rd-best team results in the state in that event while also making competition for the top 5 this fall more serious. Team 1600 results are a strong indication of year-round progress, and that makes me think this team's performance at their section finals was an aberration. This program also has a strong history of year-to-year improvement over the last three seasons. It's a big risk to put a "sleeper" pick this high in this countdown, but I firmly believe Mission Viejo has what it takes to make some noise in 2016.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 8th (3 Miles)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 13th (22nd, 3rd)
- Improvement Rating: 18th
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"