With 6 runners back from their 2015 team and some strong individual improvement during the spring, the Aztecs have championship potential in 2016.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
Division 3 is going to be VERY interesting this fall! Esperanza finished 4th last year, 49 points behind champion Aptos, but the Aztecs return 6 of their runners from that squad (including 4 that were either freshmen or sophomores). That gives them a slight edge in the countdown, along with strong returning rankings (4th in 3 Miles and 12th in the 5K) and and 11th-place rank in my Improvement Rating statistic. And although Esperanza's team 1600 and 3200 were not spectacular overall, there were some eye-opening individual results: Hannah Dumaine (the returning #8 runner) ran 5:18, 2nd best on the team this past spring. Add that to the strong track season Sapna Dholakia had, and you start to see the potential in the 2016 Aztec squad. This could be one of the best-packed teams in the state this fall, as their track results suggest even more clustering in the top 5, and that in turn makes Esperanza a stronger title contender.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 4th (3 Miles)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 32nd (32nd 3200, 32nd 1600)
- Improvement Rating: 11th
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"