The Wolfpack return a monster senior class, and that means their focus should be on winning a Division 2 title this year.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
As we move into the top 10 of the countdown, we've also already moved into the realm of the state's best programs in recent years. Claremont qualifies - they have the 4th-best 3-year record of improvement according to my study, and they have finished in the top 5 in their division at the state meet the last two years. This particular Wolfpack squad is coming off of a 4th-place finish in Division 2 last November, and they return 5 rising seniors from that team, losing their #3 and #4 runners to graduation. Claremont ranks 8th in California for returning 5K team scoring (and 14th at 3 Miles), and the team has the ability to peak at the right time: their best times are almost entirely from CIF meets. Watch out for Ryan Renken this fall, after he posted a 9:02 3200 on the track in the spring (and Owen Bishop also had a strong season in the 1600). The team also has depth and experience in its large Class of 2017, which will help create competition for the top 7 and develop a stronger team overall. There will be huge losses to graduation after this year, however, and that could also be a benefit: the Wolfpack knows this is the year to go for the Division 2 title, and that sense of urgency can help put a team over the top. Claremont has the best returning talent from the 2015 D2 race in Clovis, and they should contend for a championship in 2016.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 8th (5K)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 21st (28th 3200, 16th 1600)
- Improvement Rating: 4th
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"