With a potent returning front 5, the Mariners have the ability to repeat in D3, but depth is a concern.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
If cross country really only needed 5 runners, Aptos would be pushing for a spot in the top 5 in this countdown. The Mariners return 5 from the team that won the Division 3 state title in 2015, including 3 rising juniors and one rising sophomore. Their front 5 will be formidable this year, but there is a full 1 minute gap back to their returning 6th, so cultivating depth is a big priority. Aptos also didn't have spectacular team 1600 or 3200 results during track season that would indicate great improvement (although individuals in the returning top 5 did post solid times, led by Marea Zlatunich and her 4:57 1600). The Mariners do have a solid track record of year-to-year gains, and if they can develop 6th and 7th runners to support their returners, this team is fully capable of earning a repeat championship. If not, Aptos is just one injury away from a difficult year, and that makes them a bit hard to predict.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 8th (5K)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 27th (27th 3200, 27th 1600)
- Improvement Rating: 17th
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"