The Indians missed Alex Hirsch in their last two races of 2015, but they still made the state meet without him, a sign of a deep program.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
At a casual glance, you might think Burroughs (Burbank) had a disappointing end to their 2015 season. They finished 12th in Division 1 at the CIF State meet and 6th in the Southern Section finals, following a strong 2nd-place finish in their heat at prelims. Upon closer inspection, though, you can see that it was the temporary loss of #1 runner Alexander Hirsch that caused the sudden downturn in the Indians' fortunes. There was one silver lining in that situation: Burroughs got to run 4 sophomores in Clovis, gaining them valuable experience for a return trip in 2016. This team has the 2nd-best returning 3 Mile times in the state, and the Indians have the best record of year-to-year improvement among all the teams I examined. Those are the hallmarks of a top 10 team in the state overall and a top 5 team in Division 1! My only hesitation comes from the lack of strong, deep track results for this team (although Timothy Wells had a solid season, and there are some good 3200 times among young runners, so that's encouraging). Of all the teams that didn't make it into the top 10 of this countdown, this is the one that would least surprise me by greatly exceeding their preseason ranking. With Hirsch back up and running, including some strong times during summer track, this team has a chance to be in the final top 5 of our All-Sections Rankings by season's end.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 2nd
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 33rd (15th 1600)
- Improvement Rating: 1st
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"