Boys #CountdownToXC Day 12: Yucaipa

Can a team that didn't make the state meet aspire to be one of the top 15 programs in the state the next season? The Thunderbirds have enough young talent back to make a run this fall.


Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season!  Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.

How do you project the future success of a young team that struggled in their final race of the previous season?  Yucaipa made the Southern Section finals with only one senior and two juniors in their top 7, an accomplishment in itself, but then finished last in that race.  How does a team react when their season ends like that?  If the young Thunderbirds have been motivated by the experience, the 2016 season could wind up with a state meet berth.  Returning times are very strong for Yucaipa's boys, but that alone isn't enough to rank them this high - several runners set their season bests at Woodbridge, which isn't exactly a challenging course.  The Thunderbirds' fall times are supported by strong times on the track, including the 11th-best team 3200 results in the state, putting 5 returners under 10 minutes.  Watch out for big improvement from Ross Harps, who clocked 9:44 this spring.  Looking back over the last three years, Yucaipa has shown strong statistical improvement each season, which suggests a team poised for a breakthrough.  I'm picking this team top crack the top 7 in their section and make it through to Clovis for the state meet.


Ranking Data:

  • Returning Team Ranking: 9th (3 Mile)
  • Combined Spring Track Ranking: 16th (11th 3200, 20th 1600)
  • Improvement Rating: 14th


The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:

  • Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
  • Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
  • Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger.  Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
  • Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
  • A little bit of "gut feeling"