Haley Herberg is the real deal, on the course and also on the track. Can she lead the Cougars back into the top 5 in 2016?
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
When a 7th-place finish in Division 2 is somewhat of a down season, you know you have a strong program. Capistrano Valley was 2nd in 2014 and finished 4th in Division 1 the year before that, and 2016 has some hallmarks of a rebound season. The Cougars return 4 of their top 7 from that 2015 squad, including rising junior Haley Herberg, the top sophomore from the D2 race at the CIF meet who clocked 4:56 and 10:58 in the spring. As a team, Capo Valley ran well on the track, averaging 11:39 among their top 5 returning 3200 runners. The main question is depth, as the Cougars have to replace three seniors that helped the team keep a long-standing state meet streak alive last fall. There is no shortage of experience, though, and it wouldn't be a smart idea to bet against Capistrano Valley - expect them to return to the top 5 in 2016.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 9th (3 Miles)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 15th (13th 3200, 16th 1600)
- Improvement Rating: 36th
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"