With all seven returning from the squad that finished 3rd in Division 4, including 5 that will be back for 2 years, the Bobcats are only getting started.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
It's unusual to see a boys' team make the state meet with no seniors, let alone to see that team finish 3rd in Division 4. That's what Sage Creek accomplished last fall, and it goes even deeper than that: the Bobcats only had 2 juniors on their 2016 squad that came within 22 points of winning the state championship. That kind of returning talent is enough by itself to put this team high in the rankings, but they have another data set in their favor, as well: team results from track season. Sage Creek averaged 4:28 across their top 5 returning runners, ranking 4th in California during the spring (and also ranked 10th in team 3200 results). The Bobcats also have the advantage of a tight pack, with a scant 43 seconds separating their returning 1-7 runners. However, behind their top 7 returners there is a big gap, so remaining healthy will be a big priority. If Sage Creek accomplishes that, the potential is there for a D4 championship and for a team that could go toe-to-toe with just about anyone in the state.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 13th (5K)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 7th (10th 3200, 4th 1600)
- Improvement Rating: 45th
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"