With strong returning depth, eye-opening track results, and a clear #1 who can contend, there's a lot to like about Paly's boys in 2016.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
There is a LOT to like about the 2016 Palo Alto boys team. This is a solid program that makes good progress from year to year, ranking 24th in Improvement Rating. They have a front-runner, Kent Slaney, who won the CCS Division 1 race and did the same at Stanford earlier in the season; after clocking 4:16 and 9:21 in the spring he should be ready to make the leap into state-wide contention. The Vikings also have depth, with only 15 seconds separating their 4th through 7th returners. Finally, track results were eye-opening: the team averaged 4:29 and 9:44 across their top 5 returning runners, good for 9th in the entire state. I only have two reservations about Paly for this fall. First, they have a big gap between their 3rd and 4th returners that needs to be closed. Second, the Vikings did not run well at the state meet last November. You can chalk some of that up to experience - they return their top 6 runners from that squad, and I'm betting the race in Clovis left a bad taste that has motivated them ever since. If I'm right, this team has the potential to be top 10 in the state overall, let alone in Division 1.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 17th (5K)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 9th (9th 3200, 9th 1600)
- Improvement Rating: 24th
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"