The Wolverines have their top 5 back from the squad that won the SDS D2 race, and picking them to make the top 10 at the state meet this year may not be enough.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
Unlike many other sections, the best girls team battles in San Diego aren't in Division 1. In D3, you have La Costa Canyon vs. Cathedral Catholic, and in D2 there's Mt. Carmel vs. defending champion Westview (not to mention solid Canyon Crest and Rancho Bernardo teams). The Wolverines are looking like the favorites to repeat as section champs, largely because they have their potent top 5 back intact from last year (and a total of 6 of their top 7 from 2015). Westview ended up 12th at the state meet, but I think the ultimate goal for the Wolverines will be more than just getting into the top 10 in 2016. After a spring season in which they ranked 6th in the state for returning team 3200, with Erica Barrett leading the way at 10:44 and their entire projected top 6 at 12:06 or better, this team could be a sleeper pick to be in the top 5 in Clovis this November.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 18th (5K)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 9th (6th 3200, 12th 1600)
- Improvement Rating: 32nd
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"