A strong group of sophomores will try to fill in for the loss of three seniors to graduation, and help the Mustangs take the next step forward as a program.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
Trabuco Hills is a good example of a team that can move up in the standings by cultivating a large group of young runners. The Mustangs graduated three from their top 7 that finished second to Dana Hills in their league championship and ran well as Southern Section prelims before falling short of making the state meet at finals. However, they won the sophomore race for their league and finished 2nd in the freshman race, and that helps bolster the ranks of their returning runners. One of those sophomores, Alexis Park, took a big leap forward in the spring with an 11:43 3200, well under what you would expect for a 19:11 3-miler. Trabuco Hills ranks 10th in the returning 3 Mile times and their top 3 returners are legit, with solid track times to back up their cross country marks. If the 4-7 runners can hold up their end of the bargain, this team can make the top 7 in the Southern Section D1 finals and advance to the state meet.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 10th (3 Miles)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 24th (25th 3200, 23rd 1600)
- Improvement Rating: 33rd
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"
