The Bulldogs hit the wall at Southern Section finals last fall, but they return enough talent to rank highly in both the 5K and 3 Mile returning rankings.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
When you use track times to help predict cross country improvement like I do, it's easy for a team's general philosophy to confound you. Some schools don't put a lot of emphasis on track in general, using it as training for cross country. Some schools do have good track participation, but don't put many many people into the 3200, which is the best predictor of 5K improvement. Take Highland, for example: the Bulldogs have solid team 1600 results from the spring, but they don't even register on the team 3200 rankings. That requires me to "fudge" their track ranking a bit to make the numbers work, and it takes the edge off of the accuracy of my numerical prediction. That's where the element of "gut feeling" comes into play in these rankings (and of course it's not really "gut," we think with our brains, but you know what I mean). In the case of Highland, their cross country times are too good to ignore: this team ranks 9th in California in returning 5K team scores and 11th in returning 3 Mile team scores. The Bulldogs raced well at Southern Section prelims, but they seemed to run out of steam at the finals (Mt. SAC can do that to you). With 5 of their top 7 returning, look for them to rebound and contend for a state meet berth in Division 1.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 9th (5K)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 39th (28th 1600, 50th 3200)
- Improvement Rating: 43rd
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"