The Wolves finished 10th in Division 1, and they have their front 5 back...for the next TWO seasons.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
Go ahead and write it down now: San Ramon Valley has the potential to be one of the top 5 teams in California...in 2017. That's because the Wolves' top 5 girls on their squad that finished 10th in Division 1 last fall were all freshmen and sophomores! The question right now is, how much will they improve in 2016? Unfortunately, we don't have much data to answer that question, as their team results from track season, although Kate and Emma Tavella both ran well (Kate clocked a sub-11 3200). The Wolves have very little returning depth, which could be a huge problem in the event of injuries. If they can just keep the top 5 healthy and get average improvement, San Ramon Valley will be very good this fall; if they can add 2 more runners to the mix and have a good summer, this could be a top 15 program in the state overall.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 4th (5K)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: n/a
- Improvement Rating: 44th
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"