With all seven runners back and some unfinished business still to accomplish, the Tigers are looking for a breakthrough in a tough Division 1 field.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
Sometimes the season ends before a younger team can reach its full potential, and if the team senses it has unfinished business that can be a motivating factor for an entire year. I'm betting that's the case with Valencia, after a disappointing 11th-place finish at Southern Section prelims to close out 2015. The Tigers have all 7 runners back, though, which is very rare in boys' cross country, and their upcoming squad could include as many as 4 rising seniors. Track results were encouraging, suggesting that the team's 6-7 gap has been closed, and that the 2016 top 7 might run even closer as a pack than their returning 1-6 split of 45 seconds indicates. That will have to be the strategy for the Tigers, who lack an individual contender (although they should have at least 2 runners under 15 for 3 Miles). It's tough to break through in Division 1, but if it's going to happen for Valencia, this is year.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 12th (3 Miles)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 27th (19th 3200, 35th 1600)
- Improvement Rating: n/a
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"