The Diamondbacks need to add depth, but the returning core is strong enough to make the top 5 of Division 2 again this year.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
Serrano is a rarity in our database: a Southern Section team that actually ranks higher in the 5K than at 3 Miles. That's because the Diamondbacks had a great performance at the 2015 state meet, finishing 4th and coming within 22 points of the title. The team did lose three seniors from that squad, but the 4 returners from Clovis were all sophomores and freshmen, which provides a great nucleus for the next two years. The team will need to cultivate depth behind that strong front four, and recent history suggests they will be able to do so (Serrano ranks 16th in our Improvement Rating metric). I would be even more confident if there were great team results from the spring season, but it doesn't look like that's a huge priority for the Diamondbacks. Nonetheless, a return to the state meet is likely for this team, and the discovery of one more top 5 runner could make them a contender again.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 13th
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: n/a
- Improvement Rating: 16th
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"