The Broncos return six runners from the squad that finished second in the Southern Section, but they left something on the table at the state meet.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
Vista Murrieta got a taste of big-time success last fall, and if it made the team hungry then this year could be something special. The Broncos finished 2nd in the Southern Section finals to make it to the state meet, and then the magic ran out just a little bit as they ended up 13th in Clovis. With 6 returning runners back from that squad (including 3 rising sophomores), this looks like a team that can crack the top 10 in Division 1 and threaten for a spot in the top 5. It also helps that the team focuses strongly on the 3200 in the spring, ranking 15th in the state in team scoring there. In particular, returning #1 Paige Haynes almost broke 11 minutes, and it looks like last year's #6 runner, Ariel Van Riper, is ready to push for a spot in the top 5. One trend will have to change for the Broncos: our custom Improvement Rating stat doesn't like their last 3 seasons of year-to-year improvement, and that could be an indication that their approach to summer training needs tweaking. If Vista Murrieta has a strong summer, watch out for them come November.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 19th (3 Miles)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 20th (15th 3200, 24th 1600)
- Improvement Rating: 46th
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"