It feels like the Rebel boys were more celebrated last year, even though both squads won Division 5 titles. This should be the year the girls' team takes center stage.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
It's hard enough to win a state title in California, which Flintridge Prep did in Division 5 last year. To win a state title with NO SENIORS on the squad? With only two juniors? That's almost unheard of, and it could be the sign of a three-year run for the Rebels. Add in the fact that this program has the 9th-best recent record of year-to-year improvement among the teams I analyzed, and you have the formula for the formation of a dynasty. The only negative I could uncover is a lack of depth in track results, which makes it hard to chart the improvement of the young runners. Still, some teams just don't emphasize the spring season, and there's more than enough to like about the 2016 Rebels. Sophie Gitlin and Natalie O'Brien will be a potent 1-2 combo, and if Flintridge Prep can close their 5-6 gap, this could be a top 20 team in the state overall as well as a repeat D5 champion.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 15th (5K)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: n/a
- Improvement Rating: 9th
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"