With 6 of 7 returning from a trip to Clovis last November, the Grizzly Bears could be a squad on the rise.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
Girls team #29 is Granite Bay, which made it to the 2015 CIF State Meet from the Sac Joaquin section, where they finished 3rd in the Division 2 section finals. The Grizzly Bears only had one senior graduate from their top 7 last fall, though, and they should not lack for leadership this time around with as many as 4 rising seniors in their projected squad for 2016. Depth could be an issue, as there is a gap between the returning 4th and 5th runners that could leave the team vulnerable. Granite Bay's results from track season don't alleviate that concern, either, as they were dominated by runners already in the returning top 4. Still, our database says the Grizzlies have the 2nd-best returning talent in the SJS, and that means a lot. With a strong summer of training, we could see this team in the top 10 of Division 2 this fall.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 17th (5K)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: n/a
- Improvement Rating: 30th
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC:carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor:less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating:a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August!
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"