Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
Team 30 in our girls countdown is Woodbridge, which made the CIF State Meet in 2015 with only one senior on the squad. The Warriors did have 3 juniors, all in their top 5, and with that kind of leadership this could be a breakthrough season. Depth is a concern for this team, as their returning data shows a gap between their 2nd and 3rd runners and a fall-off after 6. The lack of strong results on the track is also troubling. This is a boom or bust pick: will we see a return of the Woodbridge that placed 11th last fall, or will we see the Woodbridge that only had 2 returning girls under 5:30 for the 1600 this past spring and only one returner that recorded a 3200 time? That was Lora Gonzalez, whose 11:02 is definitely encouraging. Perhaps track just isn't an emphasis among the Warriors, and if we see Elizabeth Dahl return to form after a strong summer, this could be a top-10 team in Division 2.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 17th (3 Miles)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: n/a
- Improvement Rating: n/a
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC:carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor:less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating:a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August!
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"