Last July, I kicked off the start of my time as as Senior Editor with a new tradition: the #CountdownToXC! I unveiled my preseason Top 25 one team at a time, building up to the start of the 2015 cross country season. The results were mixed: I predicted 4 of the top 5 teams in the final season rankings, though not quite in the correct order, but missed on several that ended up in the top 25 at the end of the season.
Not to be deterred, I'm back for another try, and this time around I'm using a different approach that I think better accounts for the varied race distances and course difficulties around the state. Using returning rankings (overall and from the state meet), team depth rankings from the 2016 track season, historical data, and some good old-fashioned gut feelings, I'm ready to take another swing at this Preseason Top 25 thing! Once again, I'll release one boys team and one girls team every day, starting with the Honorable Mention teams on Thursday. The final 5 will be revealed in one day at the end of the countdown, which will bring us right up to the beginning of the competitive cross country season!
After the #CountdownToXC is over, I'll also publish my long-term statistical project, the Improvement Ratings. They compare a team's returning strength at the end of one season to its final results from the next season, giving us an idea of which programs do the best job of consistently improving from year to year. We also plan to tackle the question of which cross country dynasties deserve consideration as the best in California history!