The Bears already looked very good for this upcoming season with all 7 runners returning - and then track season rolled around, and they looked even better.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
Buchanan is the perfect example of why it's important to look at track results when you're trying to predict cross country success. Without that extra information, the Bears would be a top 10 team on the borders of being top 5: they have the 5th-best returning 5K results, and are 10th in the state in Improvement Rating. When you factor in a VERY strong spring season, though, Buchanan clearly belongs in the top 5. Meagen Lowe clocked 10:36.51 in the 3200, establishing herself as a potential top 10 runner in Division 1 and leading her team to a returning 5-girl average of 11:09, 2nd-best in California. Returning #5 Katie Nili ran 11:10 indicating that she is on par with the team's #2-4 runners and strengthening the scoring pack. The Bears also put 5 returning girls under 5:20 in the 1600, with returning #6 runner Taylor Gonzales making it into the top 5 there. The biggest evidence that Buchanan is a threat to make the team podium at the 2016 state meet? The team finished 4th in the Division 1 race last fall with no seniors on the squad, but they did have 3 sophomores and 2 freshmen! This team is poised to be outstanding this year, and may not even reach their full potential until 2017.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 5th (5K)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 3rd (2nd 3200, 3rd 1600)
- Improvement Rating: 10th
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"