Deep Dive: Just How Tough is the Frogtown Course?

First, let's make a direct comparison between Frogtown and Mt. SAC using the same year (I had hoped to do the same for Crystal Springs, but there weren't enough common athletes to draw any conclusions). As you can see below, the overall average for the Frogtown meet is an astonishing 3:28 slower than Mt. SAC, and the top 100 athletes at the SJS Sub-Sections were 1:22 slower than at Mt. SAC.

That may not be an accurate representation of the difficulty of the course, though, for a number of reasons. First, the SJS is one of the few sections that allows JV competition at their section prelims, and it stands to reason that tougher courses have a disproportionate impact on slower runners. More importantly, though, top teams are often able to cruise at the Sub-Sections meet, and that means the times of elite athletes may be slower than we would normally expect.

Looking at the 148 common athletes that ran in both races, Frogtown was an average of 16 seconds slower. This population is more likely to be varsity runners, and it shows a much smaller gap between the two races. Of course, we have to account for a few more weeks of training for the later SJS Sub-Sections meet, and also for the championship atmosphere. In addition, teams who are ending their season there or are on the bubble to advance to the SJS Finals may also be peaking and giving maximum effort.

Comparing 2019 SJS Sub-Sections to 2019 Mt. SAC Invite (Full Report)