It's time to get fired up for cross country! Our traditional XC countdown is back, although it will look a little different this time around - we just don't have as much quality data to approach it the way we have in the past. Instead, we will look at 25 boys and girls teams that we think will have an impact this fall in their section, in their division at the state meet, or even nationally. Unlike past countdowns, this year we're going to start with the clear contenders and then work toward some programs that might not be on your radar screen. As always, if you catch an error or have updated information for us, email editor Jeffrey Parenti (email at the bottom of every MileSplitCA page) and we'll make the corrections.
As we get deeper into this Teams to Watch series, increasingly we will encounter teams that have a mixed bag of statistics. They might look very good in one area but not show up at all in another, which is understandable given the thin data that we have from the 2020-2021 school year and the many different ways schools were affected by and responded to the pandemic.
Newbury Park's girls are a good example. Their times from the winter cross country season are quite unremarkable, but that's because they only participated in one meet in March, and in that meet only ran JV and frosh-soph athletes. The Panthers did have a few athletes run unattached in races during the fall, but not enough to assemble a returning top 5 that could score in the rankings.
We have to go back to 2019 to get cross country data for the Panthers, where they finished 9th in the frosh-soph team 3 mile rankings. That report shows excellent front-runners in rising senior Samantha McDonnell and juniors Ailish Hawkins, solid mid-varsity runners Hannah Round (junior) and Morgan Nygren (senior), and then a pretty steep drop-off. If that was our only source of information, we could expect a team with serious firepower up front but depth issues that needed to be addressed.
Track season gives us a LOT more information to work with, but I'm not sure it changes that picture much. First, it's worth noting that Round did not record a time during this past school year; the team would certainly from her absence, so we hope she returns to full form in the fall. McDonnell tore the track up, posting PR's of 4:43 for the full mile and 10:39 for the 3200. Hawkins (5:02/11:32) and Nygren (5:05/11:35) showed improvement as the team's #2 and #3, respectively. Rising sophomore Danielle Brotcke was a pleasant addition, clocking 5:14 in her freshman season. That's enough to power Newbury Park to 5th place in the returning team 1600 rankings and 9th in the returning team 3200. After those 4 there is a gap to the rest of the varsity runners, led by rising senior Lauren Whetten. That means filling out the top 7 with runners that can push the front 4 (and possibly step up in case of injury or illness) is still a big priority for the Panthers this summer.
One piece of good news for Newbury Park on the depth front: Simi Valley transfer Lexi Darley (5:16/11:20/18:19) will help immensely and should be the final piece of the top 5. If you plug her time from 2019 into the frosh/soph rankings for the Panthers that same season, they would move up to a solid 3rd place behind only Great Oak and Buchanan.
Still, it's a dicey proposition going into any cross country season counting on the same 5 runners to score in every major meet, so I still need to see more depth as the fall begins before we discuss whether the Panthers can try to replicate their 2019 Division 2 state title after a move to D1. I have no problem, however, in saying that Newbury Park is a surefire contender for the Southern Section crown.