For the last several years I've done a Countdown to XC feature in the 30 days leading up to the start of the fall season. This strange school year will be no exception! However, the usual format for the countdown won't work this time around - it depends heavily on spring track data (which we don't have) to evaluate championship contenders and try to predict emerging challengers. So, instead of a rankings-style countdown, I'm going to feature 30 boys teams and 30 girls teams that I think will have a significant impact on the upcoming, unique winter cross country season. We'll begin with the obvious contenders state-wide and in every section, and then work our way to some potential sleepers.
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Serrano has been consistently competitive in Division 2 the last three years, finishing 5th, 4th, and 3rd consecutively. Now, the Diamondbacks face the biggest challenge in their recent history: replacing four departed seniors, the runners that have been the core of the team for the last four seasons. The team will have to develop another wave of talent to continue their streak of top 5 finishes.
The Diamondbacks have a strong top 2 returning in junior Tiani Goeson and sophomore Sierra Collier, so they have something to build around. After those two, though, there is a huge drop-off in returning times. Together, seniors Nicole Mucci and Payton Lehman will be one of the big keys to Serrano's results this winter - if they can close the gap on Collier, it will make this team much more formidable. The presence of three current seniors in the projected top 7 means there will be two straight years of major graduation losses, increasing the urgency to develop more depth right now.
Any way you slice it, though, Serrano is going to need either breakthrough seasons from returning juniors and sophomores that were outside the varsity in 2019, or an infusion of new young runners (perhaps both). Will this be a repeat of the 2016 season, then the Diamondbacks missed the state meet entirely, or will we see a two-year rebuilding that keeps them in the conversation in Division 2? With such a long offseason and no track results to speak of, this team is a mystery to me, and I will be very interested to see them race this winter.