CIF State Championship Team Scoring Preview

Boys CIF State Championship Scoring Preview

(Photo by Kirby Lee)

Strictly by the Seeds

As a starting point, we scored the meet using only the seed marks that are listed in the performance list (see the full virtual meet using these marks).  Of course, the actual state meet rarely goes according to the seeding; some athletes might cruise in the section final, while others might have given their all just to get to the state meet; some might be hitting their stride perfectly, while others may be wearing down through the long postseason grind. Still, this helps us to identify the most likely contenders for team awards.  Using only the seeds, we get four clear contenders, then a drop-off to fifth:

Great Oak 47

Vista Murrieta 44

Oakmont 28

Notre Dame Sherman Oaks 27

La Quinta 18

Max Points Scenario for Each Team

Next, we look at the reasonable maximum points that each contending team could achieve, if everything falls their way.  I looked at athletes that could be potential winners in events where they aren't seeded first, however unrealistic that might be in some cases.  It's important to note that some of these scenarios are mutually exclusive, so the final team scores could not actually happen this way.  However, this does give us a good sense of which teams have the highest ceiling and the ability to "outscore their seeds."  It also adds one other team to the mix, potentially.

Great Oak 52

• 1-2 in 800 from Cortes and Quintana

Vista Murrieta 44

• No change - already seeded 1st in 4 events

Notre Dame Sherman Oaks 44

• Lietz wins 400, Chaidez wins 800, win 4x1 & 4x4

Oakmont 33

• Isaiah Holmes wins TJ in addition to LJ & HJ

Esperanza 23

• Bronson Osborn wins DT in addition to SP

Adjusting Seed Marks with Season Bests

Finally, I went through every event and changed the order using each athlete's season bests.  This isn't quite the same as the virtual meet using season bests, because that goes by team rather than by individual (also, if an athlete dropped one or more events at the sectional level that isn't reflected in the virtual meet).  Another note: only wind-legal marks in the 100, 200, 100H, LJ, and TJ were included here, although I did look at possibilities where windy performances were considered.  As a result, we get a drastically different picture:

Vista Murrieta 47

Great Oak 40

Esperanza 22

Notre Dame Sherman Oaks 21

Buchanan 20

My Bold Prediction

The truth, as always, lies somewhere in between the extremes of the last two sets of scores.  I believe it will come down to a battle betweem Vista Murrieta and Great Oak, with both having late scoring chances to keep the competition exciting.  We won't know until the 3200 and the 4x400 are over - and that means Vista Murrieta has the slight advantage of knowing exactly where things stand going into the final race.  Would you bet against Michael Norman and company with the title on the line?  In the end, I think Great Oak's distance runners will face too many fresh athletes in the 800 and 3200 to get maximum points, and the Broncos will defend their title.  In the battle for third place, Notre Dame Sherman Oaks just has more scoring options than Oakmont, which is totally dependent on the one-man wrecking named Isaiah Holmes.  If Holmes can all three of his field events, he will be a legend and Oakmont may very well take third, but he doesn't have much margin for error.

1. Vista Murrieta

2. Great Oak

3. Notre Dame Sherman Oaks

4. Oakmont

5. (tie) Esperanza, La Quinta