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And that's why they run the races. Throw those predictions right out the window!
On a day of outstanding competition among boys at Saturday's CIF-Sac-Joaquin Section Cross Country Championships, predicted favorites fell while others prevailed.
Nothing tore up the script like the Division 1 race, where Folsom senior Nathan Short beat Davis senior Ryan Mitchell to the line by all of 0.40 seconds for the title, and third-place finisher Daniel Gonzalez led Stockton Lincoln to an upset of perennial champion Jesuit for the team title.
Short ran the 5,000-meter Willow Hills Reservoir course in 15:35.80 with Mitchell crossing just behind in 15:36.20. Mitchell improved on his 15:48.50 third-place finish as a junior but not to the level that Short did. A year ago, in placing sixth on the course in Folsom, Short ran 16:19.70.
While Jesuit was looking for its fourth consecutive title, 14th in D-1, 14th in the 2000s, and 30th overall, Lincoln went out and won its first -- by all of one point!
Senior Jansen Gillig placed sixth (16:00.30), juniors Jeffrey Overgaard (14th, 12th among scorers, 16:37.70) and Logan Neuner (16th/14th, 16:47.10), and senior Keith Mertz (26th/24th, 17:10.90) for Lincoln. Senior Brandon Moreno placed fourth in 15:50.30 to lead Jesuit, which ran without super soph Chase Cressman, who was ill and unable to compete. Jonah Reynolds ran No. 2 for the Marauders, placing eighth in 16:02.80.
Lincoln, Jesuit and Davis earned the division's three berths into the Nov. 26 CIF-State Championships at Woodward Park in Fresno.
Vacaville senior Donovan Cheruiyot was the top returner in Division 2 after placing third last fall, and he made it hold up with a 15:55.70 clocking to win the title (a 21-second improvement from '21). But his team wasn't able to defend against a deep and determined Whitney group that won just its third overall SJS title by 15 points over Vacaville.
Senior Nick Herrmann (16:07.40), junior Noah Lopez (16:10.30), and senior Mateo Delgadillo (16:18.90) went 2-3-4 for Whitney. Junior David Hurren placed 10th (16:33.00) and senior Callum Turner was 12th (11th among scoring runners) in 16:41.30 as the Whitney program won both the boys and girls D-2 titles.
Junior Colton Walker ran No. 2 for Vacaville, placing seventh (16:25.60) with sophomore teammate Jackson Stream right behind him in 16:26.00.
Vista del Lago was a distant third earning the division's third and final State Meet berth. Seniors Nicholas Granger (16:48.50) and Dominick Gianetto (16:58.60) placed 15th and 16th overall for Vista del Lago.
Individual favorites in the two smallest school divisions -- both sophomores -- defended titles.
Jeffrey Parenti is the MileSplit California State Editor
Photos by James Leash