Boys Countdown to XC Day 6: Loyola

This is the part of the Countdown where I remind everyone that this is not meant to be taken as a literal ranking. This is a statistical exercise that is designed to spot teams that have certain indications of depth, talent, and development, but it is by no means comprehensive enough to actually order teams by relative strength (especially since summer can make a HUGE difference either way). Despite the statistical foundation, though, I usually take a flyer on a team that might not have the numbers - and this year it just so happens that my "flyer" is one of the truly great programs in California. Loyola doesn't look like a top 10 team in this countdown after graduating a whopping TEN of their top 14 runners from 2018. The Cubs are here because I find them very interesting this year, for two reasons. First, they confound my statistical measures - they don't race on ultra-fast courses that pad their returning XC rankings, and last spring they focused heavily on the 800 rather than the 16 or 32. Loyola even foils my Improvement Rating, possibly because many of their rising runners are already well-trained when they step up to varsity. Second, I am always intrigued at how a perennial powerhouse will respond to the departure of such a large and talented senior class. This summer and fall represent one of Coach Lalo Diaz's greatest challenges, and I'm guessing Loyola will reload rather than rebuild.