Girls Coundown to XC Day 17: Serrano

By returning rankings alone, the Diamondbacks look like a top 10 team in California regardless of division. Coming off a fourth-place finish in Division 2 and returning 6 of 7, there is no question that this is a formidable team - and the fact that they could have 5 seniors in their top 7 this fall should add both leadership and urgency to their training. However, this is a statistical exercise that uses multiple factors, and behind those returning XC rankings there isn't as much support here. Serrano is a solid team at year-to-year progression as measured by our Improvement Rating, ranking in the 30's of the 80 or so programs we have evaluated. Team track season results, which I have found are very predictive of fall success, are a little disappointing for a team with such talent, although Maribel Aguilar and Tiani Goeson did run right around 11 minutes in the 3200. Perhaps the Diamondbacks just don't emphasize track season as much as some other programs, but this squad has a big gap between their returning 4th and 5th runners that needs to be filled for them to reach full potential, and spring results don't show progress on that front. Having said all that, I will not be at all surprised to see this team contend for Southern Section and state titles this fall - I just don't have all the evidence to make that assessment yet.