Boys 3200
On the boys' side we rarely see freshmen go right to the top of the rankings, but there is the occasional exception. Take Matt Strangio, for example: although he was incredibly impressive as a 9th-grader, his times of 9:17 and 4:22 didn't exactly shake up the state-wide rankings. As a sophomore, though, he posted an eye-opening 8:56 in the 3200, ranking among the top 10 returners in the nation. THAT was a breakout season, to be sure - but it just serves to highlight the point that we shouldn't look to the Class of 2022 for this year's emerging stars.
Instead, let's focus for a moment on Cy Chittenden. Past athletes with similar profiles (Ryan Tate and Andrew Burkhardt to name two) ran under 9:05, but Chittenden's PR is just 9:50. Expect that to change in a big way this spring, and it will also be interesting to watch him in the 1600 (comparable runners have gone as fast as 4:10, although they had better 800 chops than the Mira Costa senior has thus far shown).
There are several other candidates to make it to state-wide elite status this year, potentially threatening the 9 minute mark in the process. Caleb Niednagel comes into this season with a solid 1600 PR of 4:17, but his cross country times suggest he can improve on his 9:14 3200. Noah Hibbard also profiles as a 9-minute 3200 runner despite his 9:21 PR, but his history also suggests he favors the 1600 and 800; will he go for a big 2 mile at some point this spring? Likewise for Loic Scomparin, Ivan Mendez, and Evan Bates, who have almost the exact same set of times as Niednagel and Hibbard (although Hibbard is the best miler and 800 runner of the group.
If you want my best bet for breakout 3200 star, though, my pick is Anthony Grover. He comes into the season with state-wide elite times in the 1600 (4:13) and 800 (1:55), which gives him an excellent speed base. Add to that his strong cross country times, and you have the formula for a sub-nine 3200 - but his PR is 9:14. I think that number is going way down this spring, unless he decides to focus his energy entirely on the shorter races.