Girls #CountdownToXC, Complete 1-30

2015 CA XC Preview

11. La Costa Canyon

This team is built to win in 2015: La Costa Canyon has all 7 runners back from their 2014 squad, including 5 rising seniors - which should give this team both strong leadership and a major sense of urgency. It looks like the Mavericks have already been working on getting better from their 8th-place finish in the Division 2 race at last year's CIF State Meet. Sarah Abrahamson made a big leap forward during track season, clocking a 12-second PR of 4:59 while leading 4 returners under 5:17 in the 1600 and 5 at 12:01 or better in the 3200. La Costa Canyon will be in Division 3 this fall, which gets them out of what was shaping up to be a really intense battle in D2. The Mavericks have a strong recent history of year-to-year-improvement, ranking 12th among the teams we evaluated, so you can count on them to right in the mix for the title in their new classification.

1) Michaela Fromme18:51.00
2) Mckenna Brown18:59.00
3) Riley Prohaska19:24.00
4) Sarah Abrahamson19:27.00
5) Savannah Boyd19:49.00
Average Time: 19:18.00 Total Time: 1:36:30.00 1-5 Split: 58.00
6) Rachel Ereso19:50.00
7) Keely Boyd19:55.00


12. Redwood (NC)

The Big Red have one of the best mascots in the state, and they also had one of the younger teams at the 2014 CIF State Meet. Behind graduate Mary Monda Oewel, who led the team to a 6th-place finish in the Division 2 race, Redwood fielded just 1 junior and 5 combined 9th- and 10th-graders. Not only does this team rank as the top returning squad in the North Coast Section, they also had some eye-opening track results. Returning #1 Glennis Murphy dropped her 1600 PR by 10 seconds to 4:51, leading three Big Red returners at 5:06 or better (and the entire returning top 5 was under 5:25). That's good for 5th-best in the state of California, and it bodes well for Redwood's hopes of contending for the D2 title in 2015. The only concern is depth - we only have 6 returners with times in our database, so the development of the team's 6 - 12 runners is crucial this summer. If that is addressed, though, the Big Red could esily be one of the top 10 schools in the state by the end of the season.

1) Glennis Murphy18:21.99
2) Gillian Wagner19:00.12
3) Rachel Bordes19:27.83
4) Annie Fogarty19:36.00
5) Sophia Mcwhorter19:44.00
Average Time: 19:13.99 Total Time: 1:36:09.94 1-5 Split: 1:22.01
6) Magali De Bruyn20:18.33


13. Palos Verdes

The defending Division 3 state champions have to overcome the loss of 3 seniors from their 2014 squad, but the are indications that this will be far from a down year for the Sea Kings. First, Jacquelyn Smith had an excellent track season, running 4:48 for the 1600 and leading 4 Palos Verdes returners under 12 minutes for the 3200. That includes returning 5 & 6 runners Alex Regan and Olivia Polischeck, who seem poised to run solidly sub-20 and push the front 4 this fall. Despite the graduation losses, the Sea Kings still return enough talent to rank 7th in the Southern Section, considering all classes. That's enough to make this team solid contenders in Division 3 again!

1) Jacquelyn Smith18:15.00
2) Camille Hines18:32.00
3) Abbey Watson19:12.07
4) Lauren Bourgeois19:43.26
5) Alex Regan20:00.00
Average Time: 19:08.47 Total Time: 1:35:42.33 1-5 Split: 1:45.00
6) Olivia Polischeck20:18.92


14. Long Beach Poly

Last fall the Jackrabbits made it out of the Southern Section and finished 10th in Division 1 at the CIF state meet - without a single junior or senior on the squad. Now, having gained that valuable experience, you can bet that Poly wants to go back and do even better, and they have some track results that say they're on pace for that. Melissa Tanaka broke 5 minutes for the 1600, ranking 8th among all sophomores in the state, making her look for all the world like a runner that can threaten the 18-minute mark in 2015. Mandy Wainfan had a breakthrough in the spring, as well, going 5:20 after just missing the top 7 last November; she would provide added depth and leadership to an already-strong team. Overall, the Jackrabbits had the 11th-best returning team in the state at 1600 meters in the spring, which puts them right in line with returning cross country results. In short, Poly has a 2-year window to make a run for the top 5 in Division 1.

1) Melissa Tanaka18:52.42
2) Juliane Douds19:15.00
3) Fiona O'leary19:19.00
4) Leslie Diaz19:22.00
5) Brenda Rosales19:27.26
Average Time: 19:15.14 Total Time: 1:36:15.68 1-5 Split: 34.84
6) Lauren Fillipow19:30.00
7) Olivia Gleason19:39.00


15. Saugus

Over the last three cross country seasons, the Centurions have the 9th-best Improvement Rating of the 40+ top programs I evaluated. They also had a very strong track season, posting the 3rd-best team 3200 ranking in the state and also making the top 10 in the team 1600. So why isn't Saugus in the top 10? Two reasons. First, in preparing for the countdown I put a big emphasis on returning 5K rankings, where this team ranks 26th (they do a lot better in the 3 Mile rankings, but that distance isn't as universal across the state). Second, graduation took a big toll from the Centurions - they lost 4 seniors off the squad that won the Division 2 state title last fall, including their #1 and #3. That means new talent will have to step up to fill the void (although I admit this team could very well shoot up the mid-season rankings if the young runners prove themselves early on). With the incredibly strong history of this program, though, plus the improvement shown by runners like Ashley Heys and Mariah Castillo in the spring (both ran under 11 and 5:10), don't be surprised to see the Centurions back in contention again in 2015.

1) Ashley Heys18:25.00
2) Mariah Castillo18:36.00
3) Abby Davis19:11.00
4) Megan Tuinstra20:16.80
5) Abigail Davis20:23.00
Average Time: 19:22.36 Total Time: 1:36:51.80 1-5 Split: 1:58.00
6) Emma Bahr20:35.30