16. Paso Robles

This team's greatest strength is also its central weakness: a wicked front four, separated by only 15 seconds, but a big drop-off to the 5-6-7 runners. At least, that's how it looked at the end of the 2014 season, and team depth in track season didn't really do anything to dispel that notion. However, there is one thing that indicates the Bearcats might be deeper than the database shows - Paso Robles graded out a stellar 8th among all the programs I evaluated over the last 3 cross country seasons for year-to-year improvement. And track season wasn't a wash by any means - the team put three returners under 9:40 in the 3200, led by Luis Armendariz, and Josh Potter put up some solid times, too. That means the Bearcats will be looking to move up from their 7th-place finish in Division 3 once November rolls around!

	1) Josh Potter		16:04.63
	2) Trad Berti		16:06.00
	3) Luis Armendariz		16:19.00
	4) Gannon Chamberlain		16:20.00
	5) Brandon Smith		17:07.67
	Average Time: 16:23.46 Total Time: 1:21:57.30 1-5 Split: 1:03.04
	6) Johnathon Melendez		18:27.23
	7) Damien Navarro		18:31.72

17. St. Ignatius College Prep

Teams that have lots of returners from 2014 will naturally look stronger in returning rankings, but teams that have lots of seniors have a greater chance for success in the current season. St. Ignatius fits both profiles: the squad that finished 6th in Division 3 at the CIF State Meet had only one senior and 5 juniors, which means 5 rising seniors to provide leadership for the upcoming season. The Wildcats rank 2nd among Central Coast Section teams (behind only a division 1 school), but their move up to Division 2 will be a new (and serious) challenge. Track times support their depth and strength: returning #1 Kevin Lehr had a strong spring season, leading 6 returners that broke 4:45 for the 1600 (including former #6 Raymond Breault, who looks like a lock to push into the top 5). The Wildcats have a good track record for year-to-year improvement, so don't be surprised to see them right in the thick of things at Woodward Park when the 2015 season comes to a close.

	1) Kevin Lehr		15:53.00
	2) Kyle Reidy		16:18.00
	3) Michael Dunne		16:23.00
	4) Krey Hacker		16:24.00
	5) Nick Hollister		16:45.00
	Average Time: 16:20.60 Total Time: 1:21:43.00 1-5 Split: 52.00
	6) Raymond Breault		17:35.00

18. El Toro

In the 2013 CIF State Meet, El Toro finished 10th in DIvision 1 while running 5 seniors. That year's graduation took its toll, and in 2015 the Chargers failed to advance to Woodward Park. The good news? There was only 1 senior on last fall's top 7, to go with 6 juniors (including two - Clyde Ford and Michael Biedebach - that went to states the year before as sophomores). El Toro returns enough talent to rank 14th in the Southern Section overall, counting all sections together, and the team put three returners under 10 minutes in the 3200 during the spring. That includes what looks like a breakout season from Cory Purves, who should move into the top 7 this fall and push the whole crew to be better. As you would expect if you've followed cross country in Southern California over the years, El Toro has a strong record of year-to-year improvement (ranking 14th out of the nearly 40 top programs we evaluated before this series). I guessing that the history of the program motivates this year's senior class as much as their absence from the state meet last year, and those things are combining to create a strong summer of training.

	1) Clyde Ford		16:22.18
	2) Max Groff		16:22.56
	3) Pedro Alvarez		16:34.45
	4) Biedebach Michael		16:39.16
	5) Adrian Vargas		16:47.83
	Average Time: 16:33.24 Total Time: 1:22:46.18 1-5 Split: 25.65
	6) Joseph Shuirman		16:57.36
	7) Chris Boyd		17:23.00

19. Trabuco Hills

This is an unconventional pick, but motivation should be very high for the Mustangs after the 2014 season ended way too early. After finishing a very respectable 6th in Division 1 at the Asics Clovis Invitational (with no seniors in the varsity race), the team failed to advance to Southern Section Prelims from a disastrous league race. Like the Monte Vista girls this morning, the Trabuco Hills boys moved up in the top 30 because of strong results during track season, which demonstrates both improvement and resilience. When you look at their returning 5K times from the fall, you're struck by their depth and incredibly tight returning pack (a 1-7 split of 13 seconds!), but you also notice that the Mustangs don't have much of what I like to call "firepower" up front. Times from the spring are encouraging on that front, with returning #4 Gunnar Robinson leading the team and going sub-4:30 along with 3 other returners under 4:35. The emergence of Bryan Llopis in the spring adds even more depth, but Trabuco Hills needs to get their team average down close to 16 flat with a strong summer; in the Southern Section, it doesn't matter how close your pack runs if they aren't scoring low enough. This pick is a bet that the internal competition on such a deep program will push the runners forward enough to get them back to the level the program was on when it was winning several consecutive Orange County Championships not so long ago.

	1) Anthony Smolyanov		16:33.38
	2) Kyle Hess		16:33.77
	3) Daniel Perez		16:36.69
	4) Lucas Rea		16:36.89
	5) Gunnar Robinson		16:38.37
	Average Time: 16:35.82 Total Time: 1:22:59.10 1-5 Split: 4.99
	6) Jordan Loew		16:39.07
	7) Joshua Dix		16:46.09

20. Clovis

I'm guessing the rivalries in the Clovis area are pretty serious - after all, if you aren't one of the teams the advances from the Central Section to the CIF state meet, you can practically hear your competitors cheering each other on from your house. Last year it was Clovis North that had the upper hand in town, but our database says it's the Cougars that return the most 5K talent for the upcoming season. That's because Clovis was one of the younger boys' teams to race at Woodward Park last November - behind two seniors, they had 4 sophomores and a freshman. That returning top 5 is formidable, but this team also needs to cultivate depth. Fortunately, the Cougars rank 12th for year-to-year improvement over the last 3 years among the teams in the countdown, and in particular Chris Watkins had some impressive times during spring track that indicate strong progression. Clovis ranks second among returning Central Section teams, and that makes them contenders for the top 10 in Division 1.

	1) Jordan Morris		16:00.00
	2) Nathan Nickeson		16:11.00
	3) Matt Fierro		16:29.00
	4) Chris Watkins		16:35.00
	5) Jackie Moua		16:40.00
	Average Time: 16:23.00 Total Time: 1:21:55.00 1-5 Split: 40.00
	6) Mitchell Folia		18:10.99
	7) Marcus Cuiriz		18:20.60