1. Great Oak
In one way, the Great Oak boys are in the same position as their counterparts on the girls' team - they are the defending Division 1 champions. Looked at another way, though, the picture is very different: the Wolfpack won the title by a scant 6 points, failing to break 100 in one of the most intensely competitive CIF State Meet races ever. Unlike the girls, this squad lost two seniors (including their #1 runner), and they project to be extremely senior-heavy for this upcoming season. That helps with the attempt to be repeat champions, but it makes everything beyond the 2015 season a little murkier. Fortunately, the Great Oak boys have one other thing in common with their female teammates: tremendous depth. This might even be the deeper of the two Wolfpack teams, as the top 3 boys all broke 4:10, led by Isaac Cortes; all told, this group put 5 returners under 4:30 and 9 under 10 minutes in the 3200 - and that includes several runners that aren't on the returning top 7 list from last season (below). Great Oak's boys will have their hands full defending their title against some very talented challengers, but they're good enough to invoke that old sporting phrase: to be the champions, you have to beat the champions. The road to the state title goes through Temecula this year.
| 1) Spencer Dodds | 15:21.33 | |||
| 2) Isaac Cortes | 15:22.57 | |||
| 3) Cole Spencer | 15:44.52 | |||
| 4) Solomon Fountain | 16:08.33 | |||
| 5) Nelson Quintana | 16:13.00 | |||
| Average Time: 15:45.95 Total Time: 1:18:49.75 1-5 Split: 51.67 | ||||
| 6) Justin Eipp | 16:23.60 | |||
| 7) Gavin Korby | 16:29.94 | |||
2. Dana Hills
They finished 2nd in Division 1 in 2014; they return 6 of their top 7 from that race, making them the #1 returning team from CIF State Meet; they end up 12th in the nation in returning 5K rankings; they put 5 returners under 4:30 in the 1600 and 7 under 10 minutes in the 3200 during track season. Normally, that would add up to the heavy favorite for a state title and the likely #1 team, but the Dolphins land in the runner-up spot in our countdown. In truth, though, Dana Hills is absolutely within striking range of both of those goals - it's just that they're not the only team with a claim to them. Individually, Jake Ogden broke 4:10, which would seem to indicate that he is on target for sub-15 this fall, and Mason Coppi ran an eye-opening 9:01 for 3200. This team has firepower up front and depth through at least 6 runners (and those track results suggest beyond that), and the Dolphins also project to have great leadership from a strong rising senior class. In other words, all the makings of a championship team are here, but the competition will be fierce for Dana Hills.
| 1) Jake Ogden | 15:11.00 | |||
| 2) Mason Coppi | 15:33.00 | |||
| 3) Colin Stein | 15:51.00 | |||
| 4) Jack Landgraf | 16:09.68 | |||
| 5) Brandon Hough | 16:22.00 | |||
| Average Time: 15:49.34 Total Time: 1:19:06.68 1-5 Split: 1:11.00 | ||||
| 6) Matt Konopka | 16:36.00 | |||
| 7) Thomas Wilfert | 17:17.86 | |||
3. Madera South
When the 2014 cross country season ended, Madera South was 3rd in the Division 1 race at the CIF State Meet - but the Stallions were only 9 points behind the champions in what turned out to be a very dramatic team finish. There is little doubt that such a close loss had to sting, and you can see evidence that it also motivated this team when you look at spring track results. Eduardo Herrera led a massive charge in the 3200, breaking 9 minutes to lead 5 returners that ran under 10. Herrera will be the #2 returner in the state in that event (he also ran 4:10), and even Nicholas Hernandez - who didn't quite make the top 7 last year - got onto that list of sub-10 returners. Madera South returns 4 of their top 5 from Woodward Park last fall; add that to the fact that this program ranks 2nd in the state for year-to-year improvement, and you have a formula for a championship contender. The problem is, sometimes another team gets better even better than you do...and there's nothing you can do about that.
| 1) Eduardo Herrera | 15:07.00 | |||
| 2) Miguel Villar | 15:15.00 | |||
| 3) Michael Ochoa | 15:49.00 | |||
| 4) Christian Nevarez | 16:08.00 | |||
| 5) Nicholas Hernandez | 16:49.60 | |||
| Average Time: 15:49.72 Total Time: 1:19:08.60 1-5 Split: 1:42.60 | ||||
| 6) Adrian Alvarez | 17:01.40 | |||
| 7) Sergio Maldonado | 17:11.20 | |||
4. Arcadia
2014 didn't quite go as well as 2013 for the Apaches, as Phillip Rocha was the lone Arcadia runner to make it out of the Southern Section (of course, he made the best of his trip to Woodward Park, winning the Division 1 individual title and breaking 15 minutes). Things are looking up for 2015, though, as our database has this team ranked 4th in the returning 5K rankings and 12th for the 3 Mile. Even better: the Apaches graded out #1 in the state in my Improvement Rating, which measures year-to-year progression compared to the final ranking of the team. That indicates strong summer training, and that's exactly what this team needs. As far as track season goes (did I mention that Phillip Rocha is a beast?), Arcadia discovered a new potential top-5 runner in Dominick Gonzalez, who ran well in his first season; if he can carry that over to the fall, it will help solidify the top 7. All of these indicators point to a turn-around year for the Apaches - earning them not just a return trip to the CIF State Meet, but status as a tough team to beat once they get there.
| 1) Phillip Rocha | 14:49.19 | |||
| 2) Shady Makar | 15:58.00 | |||
| 3) Chris Lee | 16:06.00 | |||
| 4) Austin Che | 16:13.00 | |||
| 5) Antonio Arroyo | 16:27.64 | |||
| Average Time: 15:54.77 Total Time: 1:19:33.83 1-5 Split: 1:38.45 | ||||
| 6) Ravi Sharma | 16:50.87 | |||
| 7) Pablo Ramales | 16:58.26 | |||
5. Jesuit
This is the first team in the countdown (boys or girls) that falls in the top 10 for all 3 statistical factors I used to prepare these rankings - despite the fact that the Marauders did not advance out of the Sac Joaquin section in 2014 after moving up to Division 1. Jesuit has all 7 runners back from that race, however, and they also have a strong recent record of year-to-year improvement. Sean Kurdy is a beast, the #7 returner in the state in the 5K, and he ran 9:08 in the spring (also the #7 returning time) to reinforce that. Behind him, the team's 2-7 runners have a scant 35-second split, and they also ran welll in the spring: Patrick Cummings and Ben Holland were among the 6 Marauders to break 10 minutes (not to mention a host of returners under 5 in the 1600). While last fall was about gaining experience, the 2015 season has to be about maximizing success; Jesuit has at least 5 rising seniors in the projected top 7 right now. It all starts with being in the top 2 in their section so they can make it to Woodward Park, and the database says they're heavily favored to do just that.
| 1) Sean Kurdy | 15:18.00 | |||
| 2) Evan Cross | 16:02.00 | |||
| 3) Matthew Sickman | 16:20.00 | |||
| 4) Michael Lackner | 16:24.19 | |||
| 5) Brendan Jones | 16:26.00 | |||
| Average Time: 16:06.04 Total Time: 1:20:30.19 1-5 Split: 1:08.00 | ||||
| 6) Patrick Cummings | 16:33.00 | |||
| 7) Ben Holland | 16:37.00 | |||