Boys #CountdownToXC, Complete 1-30

2015 CA XC Preview
Jeff George

26. Brea Olinda

If you only look at the returning times in our database the Wildcats don't seem to belong in this countdown, but I assure you they're not here just because of their national-caliber #1 runner, Austin Tamagno. Yes, Brea Olinda won the Division 3 championship last fall behind Tamagno's individual win, and yes, they also lost 4 seniors from that team; normally that would be a sign of impending rebuilding. Results from this spring, however, tell a different story: the Wildcats ranked 9th in the state in the team 1600, producing 11 returning runners under 4:50. Watch out for the Tobin brothers, Joe and Jon, who both ran under 4:40 and could provide solid depth and support this fall. The projected top 7 for the 2015 season includes another 4 seniors, so the team will face an even bigger challenge next summer: replacing 8 graduates from the top 7 over two years is tough for any program.

(NOTE: I found out after publishing this article that Kevin McNulty has transferred from Orange Lutheran to Brea Olinda. If he is eligible to compete right away, he will make a significant difference, and the Wildcats should probably by much higher on the list than 26th in light of that info.)

1) Austin Tamagno15:09.00
2) Giovanni Orellana15:36.00
3) John Dempsey17:00.00
4) Caleb Myers17:00.00
5) John David Stendahl17:37.00
Average Time: 16:28.40 Total Time: 1:22:22.00 1-5 Split: 2:28.00
6) Matthew Salas18:04.00
7) Joe Bianchi18:04.00


27. Quartz Hill

This is a prediction that could go two ways - either I'll look like a genius, or I'll look foolishly optimistic. That's because the Rebels finished 13th in the Division 1 race at Southern Section Finals last year, and even if they improve substantially this fall they will still be facing an uphill road to get to the state meet. This Quartz Hill squad does have two things going for it: they should have strong leadership with 5 seniors in the projected top 7, and they have a tightly-packed front group backed by solid depth. The returning front 4 for the Rebels is separated by only 35 seconds, helping them to the 15th-best returning team score in the Southern Section (all divisions together). That might not be enough to get to the state meet by itself, but there are some solid track results to indicate improvement (in particular, returning #4 Kyle McRoberts took a big step forward in the 3200). If that holds true, then Quartz Hill could be a sleeper candidate to make it to Woodward Park.

1) Travis Cetti16:04.02
2) David Moreno16:15.26
3) Jacob Branch16:29.85
4) Kyle Mcroberts16:39.50
5) Cade Ruble17:01.51
Average Time: 16:30.03 Total Time: 1:22:30.14 1-5 Split: 57.49
6) Brendan Mcroberts17:06.32
7) Bryce Butler17:39.25


28. West Ranch

This is the perfect opportunity to talk about one of the important factors I used in creating these rankings: team results from track season. You don't HAVE to have great track times to improve from one cross country season to another, but it helps...and team track results (especially in the 1600) are more closely correlated with cross country success than you might think. Take West Ranch for example: they ranked 19th in the state in both events during outdoor season. That could be due to carry-over motivation from last fall, when the Wildcats had a rough day at the Southern Section Finals (except for Tucker Welker, who advanced to Woodward Park). This year's squad has the top four from that race back and 5 out of seven all told, and that's enough to rank them 4th among returning Southern Section Division 2 teams. It's never easy to get to Fresno from Mt. SAC, but then again West Ranch's returning 2, 4, and 5 runners all broke 4:30 for the 1600 this spring (and Ryan Painter ran 9:16 for 3200, making him a virtual lock to run well under 16 this fall). That kind of improvement can herald a breakthrough for a team, and with a bit more depth the Wildcats could make some noise in November.

1) Tucker Welker15:43.00
2) Ryan Painter16:32.88
3) Jack Arnold16:43.31
4) Justin Sherfey16:53.45
5) Timothy Sterkel16:55.97
Average Time: 16:33.72 Total Time: 1:22:48.61 1-5 Split: 1:12.97
6) Michael Haggenmiller17:36.12
7) Hunter Covarrubias17:39.21


29. Steele Canyon

Depth is a bit of a concern for the Cougars, but it helps to have a solid #1 runner in Luis Pina. There are 2 seniors in the returning top 5 to go with 2 juniors, so this is a veteran team that should be able to max out its results this fall. Motivation should be strong for this squad, as Steele Canyon fell just short of advancing to the CIF State Meet from their San Diego sectional race. The Cougars had good participation in spring track among their returning runners, although the times weren't super fast, and that's often an indicator of upcoming improvement. If that's true for rising sophomores Christian O'Neill and Matt Scarlett, they would provide much-needed support for a roster that looks thin at this point.

1) Luis Pina15:45.00
2) Ken Lautner16:27.00
3) Jack Schaefer16:34.00
4) Dominic Garza16:39.00
5) Matt Lightner17:17.00
Average Time: 16:32.40 Total Time: 1:22:42.00 1-5 Split: 1:32.00


30. Monache

Of the 35 teams that we evaluated using our Improvement Rating metric, the Marauders ranked 11th; they have improved their returning 1-5 average by 42 seconds per year over the last 3 years. This team got hammered by graduation (losing 5 of their top 7 from their state meet squad), so that ability to improve will be sorely tested this summer. I would feel even better about their chances if there were strong returning track results to indicate progress, but Monache does have an impressive 26-second split between their returning 1-5 runners. That kind of pack running can make the Marauders one of the top teams in the Central Section.

1) David Mendez16:22.20
2) Jaden Uphoff16:34.00
3) Christopher Santos16:38.40
4) Ignacio Arriaga16:45.20
5) Evan Ishida16:48.40
Average Time: 16:37.64 Total Time: 1:23:08.20 1-5 Split: 26.20
6) Amrit Sandhu18:06.00