Girls #CountdownToXC, Complete 1-30

2015 CA XC Preview

16. Aptos


Returning 5K times make the Mariners look like a potential power this season, and when you see how young their team was last fall it only adds to that impressions. Aptos fielded a top 7 with only one senior and 3 freshmen at the CIF State Meet, where they finished 5th in Division 3. Every team that finished ahead of them in that race had at least three seniors graduate, and that could make the Mariners the favorite for the Division 3 title in 2014. The database ranks them as the top team in the Central Coast Section from any division, whether you look at 5K times or 3 Miles. The results from track season even agree: returning #2 Marea Zlatunich broke 5 minutes in the 1600 and Maddie Peoples cracked the 11-minute barrier, which puts both in position to challenge for sub-18 times this fall. The only weakness I can find on this team is the relatively big gap from their top 5 to the 6th and 7th returners, which would make any injuries to the front-runners dificult to overcome. With some cultivation of depth over the summer, though, this team could easily end up in the top 10 overall by season's end.

1) Maddie Peoples18:23.00
2) Marea Zlatunich18:47.00
3) Anika Mcbride18:58.00
4) Annika Niles19:02.00
5) Olivia Quinn19:15.00
Average Time: 18:53.00 Total Time: 1:34:25.00 1-5 Split: 52.00
6) Olivia Berhan20:06.00
7) Quin Lin Harrell20:19.00


17. Eleanor Roosevelt

This is a risky pick, because the 2014 season essentially shows two completely different teams for the Broncos, and you have to decide which is the true reflection of where this squad will be in 2015. On the one hand, Roosevelt ran extremely well at the Stanford Invitational, and their 5K times from that meet are good enough to make this team the 10th-best returning top 5 in the state. On the other hand, the Broncos struggled at Southern Section Finals (all except rising sophomore Tahlia Adams, who finished 5th) and failed to advance to the state meet, leaving them as only the 26th-best returning team from that meet. Maybe it was the loss of Aily Camacho, who ran 4th for the team at Stanford; maybe the team peaked early, or wasn't fully prepared for the hills. Whatever the cause, something has to be going right when you have a 9th-grader break 18 at Mt. SAC, and Adams went on to finish 11th at the state meet and then clocked 5:03 in the spring, with returning #3 Brittany Marrero at 5:10 and 11:23 for good measure. Plus, Eleanor Roosevelt returns 6 of 7 from last fall and only has one rising senior for the upcoming season (along with 4 rising sophs). All of that seems to indicate that those mid-season times showed the true potential of this team, and if so they will have a solid chance to get to the Division 1 race at Woodward Park in November.

1) Tahlia Adams17:45.00
2) Crystal Valiente18:47.00
3) Brittany Marrero19:22.00
4) Aily Camacho19:24.00
5) Jaden Warrick19:25.00
Average Time: 18:56.60 Total Time: 1:34:43.00 1-5 Split: 1:40.00
6) Paloma Barron20:07.00
7) Savannah Dinco22:35.00


18. Dana Hills

The Dolphins fielded a senior-heavy team at the Southern Section Finals last fall, but 3 of the top 4 from that squad are back (including Kathryn Kaloroumakis, who advanced individually to the CIF State Meet). Our database says Dana Hills is still returning enough talent to rank 10th in the section going into the 2015 season (counting all divisions together), which would put this team in position to get all 7 to Woodward Park if things go well. Things certainly went well during the spring: this team ranked 7th in the state for returning 5-girl 1600 average and 10th for the 3200. Returning #2 Sienna Serrao led 4 returning Dolphins that broke 5:15, and the same 4 went under 12 (led by Kaloroumakis and her 10:49). Of particular note during track season was returning #7 Alyssa White, who clocked 5:15 and 11:22 - she will definitely push the top 5 if she keeps that up! Given the level of improvement demonstrated by those times, it seems reasonable to project Dana Hills as a state meet team this fall.

1) Kathryn Kaloroumakis18:19.58
2) Sienna Serrao18:43.38
3) Tatum Trottman19:32.45
4) Jennifer Daly19:42.79
5) Camille Perkins19:48.84
Average Time: 19:13.41 Total Time: 1:36:07.04 1-5 Split: 1:29.26
6) Emily Pai20:04.68
7) Alyssa White20:09.00


19. Monte Vista

We've had several teams in the Countdown that will have to rely on depth to succeed this fall, but the Mustangs are the first with serious front-running firepower. The 1-2 punch of Brooke Starn and Meredith Corda will be tough for all but the best teams in the state to counter, especially after a very strong track season. Monte Vista ranked 2nd among all California teams in team 1600 results, putting 4 returners under 5:10. That reflects breakout seasons from Heidi Fuhriman and the freshman Coney twins, Madalyne and Audrey. Given the improvement demonstrated by that track success, the Mustangs' one apparent weakness in the returning 5K rankings (depth) may already be addressed. There is certainly motivation lingering from 2014, as well: after winning the North Coast Division 1 title, Monte Vista faded to 15th in a disappointing CIF State Meet race. All of that adds up to huge potential for the 2015 team, as they seek to crack the top 10 in Division 1; our database has them 12th based on returners, before all that track improvement happened.

1) Brooke Starn17:44.78
2) Meredith Corda18:06.00
3) Catherine Kiser19:35.89
4) Heidi Fuhriman19:50.00
5) Karalyn Sawchuk20:02.00
Average Time: 19:03.73 Total Time: 1:35:18.67 1-5 Split: 2:17.22
6) Emily Gines20:07.00
7) Madi Jeha20:09.00


20. Trabuco Hills

Although the graduation of Sabrina Hermann is certainly an obstacle that needs to be overcome, there will be plenty of talent back for the Mustangs this fall. 5 runners return from the squad that finished 5th in Division 1 last November, and the team showed balance and depth during track season, as well. 3 returners broke 5:20 for the 1600, led by Makenna Duda, and Trabuco Hills ranked 19th in the state in team 3200 results (thanks in part to a great freshman season by Trinidee Stewart. Our database give the Mustangs an average overall rankings of 20th in the state (counting all divisions and sections together) over the last 3 years, and this is the first team in our countdown to return six sub-20 runners. Based on that information, expect a return trip to Woodward park in 2015!

1) Alexandra Garro19:05.00
2) Emily Cross19:14.00
3) Madison Mcgrann19:16.48
4) Makenna Duda19:24.00
5) Natalie Regalado19:36.26
Average Time: 19:19.15 Total Time: 1:36:35.74 1-5 Split: 31.26
6) Chloe Schmitz19:56.00