Girls #CountdownToXC, Complete 1-30

2015 CA XC Preview

6. Arcadia

Four sophomores and a freshman - that's what the Apaches had in the lineup at the 2014 State Meet, along with 2 seniors, and that was good enough to get them a 6th-place finish in Division 1. That means the entire Arcadia returning top 5 will be back for 2016 - but that doesn't mean they have to put off another year. The roster is well stocked, as there were 7 returning Apaches that broke 12 minutes in the 3200 this past spring (with Holly Lung and Cindy Hoang both running 5:06, as well). That should take care of the one glaring weakness on the returning 5K top 7 listed below - the gap between the front 5 and the depth runners. This squad looks like a top-5 team in the Southern Section, and could break the top 5 at Woodward Park if everything comes together - but the pressure is less this season, because they'll have another crack at it next year.

1) Holly Lung18:24.02
2) Cindy Hoang18:26.00
3) Joy Huang18:45.02
4) Julia Reyes19:05.78
5) Eryca Yamane19:10.30
Average Time: 18:46.22 Total Time: 1:33:51.12 1-5 Split: 46.28
6) Sarah Marriott19:56.00
7) Alyssa Hopf20:41.00


7. St. Francis (Mountain View)

I have to admit, for someone whose expertise is rooted in the southern portion of the state, I had a hard time getting the two NorCal St. Francis programs sorted out in my head. Now that I've got a fix on both teams, though, I can see that the Lancers have a load of returning talent, having lost only their #6 runner from the 2014 squad that finished 10th in Division 2. Emily Skahill and GIa Kim both had very good track seasons, demonstrating solid improvement from the fall. To live up to this ranking, though, the Lancers will need a strong summer. The potential is there for this team to be the top squad in the Central Coast Section (although Aptos will certainly have something to say about that), regardless of division. If it doesn't quite come together this year, the team has enough young talent to be back in the hunt in 2016, so stay tuned.

1) Emily Skahill19:00.00
2) Melissa Seaman19:05.00
3) Julia Bounds19:16.00
4) Gia Kim19:21.00
5) Carla Cornillon19:32.00
Average Time: 19:14.80 Total Time: 1:36:14.00 1-5 Split: 32.00
6) Carly Trent20:05.00
7) Barbara Zhao20:34.00


8. Buchanan


After 2 teams that score very high in the returning 5K rankings, we get to a school that stands out for other reasons. The Bears have the 21st-best returning talent in the state, but it's their offseason cross country preparation that's among the best in California. Over the last 3 years, Buchanan rates 6th among all the teams in our countdown for offseason improvement (which covers all the time between the end of one cross country season and the start of the next). This is supported by the Bears' very strong results from the 2015 track season: 9th-best in the state for returning 1600 rankings, and a stellar 2nd-best for returning 3200 times. That's how we can project them this high despite the loss of 3 seniors from the team that finished 12th in Division 1 last fall. Returning #3 Ellie Nardella led the way in those returning 3200 rankings, fronting a 5-girl group clustered between 11:14 and 11:19 - and that includes Mackenzie Mora, who doesn't make the returning top 7 for the 5K but sure looked like a top-5 runner during the spring. Based on those indications of improvement, Buchanan could actually be a little better in 2015, no small feat when you lose a runner of the caliber of Hannah Benoit.

1) Hailey Fernandez18:36.00
2) Katie Nili19:10.42
3) Ellie Nardella19:14.75
4) Clare Hernandez19:41.28
5) Mikayla Prahl19:55.00
Average Time: 19:19.49 Total Time: 1:36:37.45 1-5 Split: 1:19.00
6) Prabhjot Kaur21:09.15
7) Kathrine Carter21:29.00


9. Serrano

The Diamonbacks have a formidable returning front five, one of only 3 schools in the state with 5 sub-18 girls back from last fall. Even better: they were the same top 5 runners that powered Serrano to a 4th-place finish in Division 2 at Woodward Park in November. The problem is, those are the only 5 returning 5K times we have in our database, which makes it harder to evaluate this team's depth. Looking at 3 Mile times (in which Serrano ranks 2nd in the state), it appears there is a gap from their 5th runner back to the #6 and #7, which could be problematic if the Diamondbacks suffer any injuries or illnesses to their scorers. Results from the spring reinforce another strength of this team: they run with a close-knit pack that lacks a star, which can be an advantage - if one runner has an off-day, there is always another runner ready to step up. Courtney Brenner stood out during track season with a solid 11:12 3200 time, leading 8 returners who recorded times in that event, a good sign of off-season development. It looks like Serrano

1) Kelly Fairchild18:26.00
2) Courtney Brenner18:39.00
3) Summer Barkan18:42.00
4) Alexis Ramirez18:52.00
5) Mckenzie Cornell18:54.00
Average Time: 18:42.60 Total Time: 1:33:33.00 1-5 Split: 28.00


10. Claremont

Returning talent is the backbone of this countdown (though it's certainly not the only factor), and the Wolfpack has plenty - three sub-18:50 runners and another at 19:05, plus two more sub-20. Claremont only had one senior in the top 7 at the CIF State Meet - their #7 runner there - and only one junior to boot, which means this team has a two-year window to improve with a 5-girl core. The 2015 Wolfpack will be even stronger if Janelle Baeskins and Alexandra Gushue, who both ran under 12 and 5:30 during the spring, can close the gap between them and the top 4. Claremont does need to add more depth, and it may not all come together until 2016, but when it does this team has all the hallmarks of a potential title contender.

1) Annie Boos18:23.40
2) Tess Rounds18:26.69
3) Jax Heckers18:48.00
4) Kiana Cavanaugh19:05.74
5) Alexandra Gushue19:39.00
Average Time: 18:52.57 Total Time: 1:34:22.83 1-5 Split: 1:15.60
6) Janelle Baeskens19:43.00