Girls #CountdownToXC, Complete 1-30

2015 CA XC Preview

1. Great Oak

In the combined metric I used to help shape these rankings, a perfect score is 1.0. Wanna guess what the Wolfpack scored? Great Oak ranked 1st in the returning 5K rankings, 1st in the returning 3200 rankings, 1st in the returning 1600 rankings, and 1st in my Improvement Rating. Did I mention that they return 6 of the 7 runners that dominated the Division 1 race in 2014? Since this team transcends all the California rankings, let's look at some national numbers. Great Oak's girls finished 2nd at Nike Cross Nationals last December, our database puts them at 2nd in the country in returning 5K rankings, and they have the #1 5-girl returning 1600 and 3200 teams in the US. In fact, those track results show that the Wolfpack may have gotten significantly better since the last cross country season: we know all about Destiny Collins' tremendous spring, but did you notice that Great Oak's returning 6 & 7 5K runners (Evelyn Mandel and Sydney Belus) both broke 5 minutes and 11 minutes? The depth numbers from this team are astonishing: 8 girls under 11 minutes in the 3200, and an eye-popping 13 under 5:20 in the 1600! And if that wasn't enough, Skyler Bollinger moved in from Illinois with her 4:56 and 10:36 PR's. This is not just the best team in California in 2015 - this is a squad that has a chance to rewrite state records and challenge some national ones, a potentially historic group that could produce what will be considered a peak year even among a dynastic stretch of success. Right now, it feels like nothing is out of the grasp of the Great Oak girls.

1) Destiny Collins16:57.00
2) Kiyena Beatty17:59.82
3) Emily Clause18:00.99
4) Desiree Stinger18:23.51
5) Sandra Pflughoft18:28.00
Average Time: 17:57.86 Total Time: 1:29:49.32 1-5 Split: 1:31.00
6) Evelyn Mandel18:33.05
7) Sydney Belus18:40.00


2. Bella Vista

With 5 returning girls under 19 minutes, this is a front 5 on par with just about anybody in the country - the Broncos rank 8th in our national 5K returning rankings. There is a drop-off after those 5 scorers, though, which would normally be a concern for a team with very high aspirations in the postseason. Those concerns are somewhat alleviated by Bella Vista's track season, in which they put 7 returners at 5:21 or faster, led by Kendall Derry's 4:57 and including newcomer Kristi Capello, who did not make the top 7 last fall but could make it much stronger this time around. Returning #6 runner Sedona McNerney also stood out for her improvement, clocking 11:30 in the 3200. Derry, of course, made it to Foot Locker Nationals last year even though she never quite reached her 2013 PR of 17:45, and she will be one of the state's best individuals again in 2015. If Bella Vista's summer training has solidified the 6 & 7 positions and improved the front 5 even a little bit, then this is a team that can legitimately earn a US Top 10 ranking by the end of the season.

1) Kendall Derry18:03.00
2) Cessair Mckinney18:17.00
3) Hannah Wohlenberg18:28.00
4) Brook Eberle18:51.00
5) Kaitlin Derry18:51.00
Average Time: 18:30.00 Total Time: 1:32:30.00 1-5 Split: 48.00
6) Sedona Mcnerney19:28.25
7) Emily Smith20:11.32


3. Clovis North

If you've been keeping up with this countdown, then you've probably figured out the factors I look for when writing about each team: returning runners, spring track results, a strong program history. The Broncos have all those things, and they look like one of the truly elite teams in California this season, capable of earning national attention. Clovis North has all 7 runners back from the squad that finished 4th in Division 1 last fall. They had 5 returning girls break 12 minutes in the 3200 during track season, including 4 under 11:30, and also 5 under 5:20 in the 1600. Lauren Moffett continued her strong fall season into the spring, clocking 4:50 and 10:37; even more impressive, however, was returning #7 Jena Srikanth putting up an 11:17 (not to mention rising soph Alexandra Kaminsky looking like a top-7 runner with a sub-12 after barely breaking 20 in cross country). Finally, the Broncos rank 7th among the teams in the countdown when it comes to year-to-year improvement, measured over the last 3 seasons. Our database puts Clovis North at #3 in the state and #12 in the country, and though that kind of ranking is iffy due to the wide variation in courses and conditions nationally, this is definitely a team that will get some attention in national top 25 rankings.

1) Lauren Moffett17:45.00
2) Lauren Lienau18:07.00
3) Camilla Hansen18:28.59
4) Pari Manoogian18:47.00
5) Blayney Dolan19:13.00
Average Time: 18:28.12 Total Time: 1:32:20.59 1-5 Split: 1:28.00
6) Jenna Saylor19:20.00
7) Jena Srikanth19:32.00


4. Davis Senior

Fiona O'Keeffe gets a ton of attention, and rightfully so - it's no secret that it helps your team when you have a runner that can score 1 point at the state meet, as the defending D1 individual champ did last year. This is no one-girl show, however, as the Blue Devils' spring results clearly show. In addition to returning an 18:00 runner in Sofia Castiglioni, Davis also had Abigail Fisk run 5:07 and 11:27 on the track (and if she had been able to complete the 2014 fall season, this team almost certainly would have been in the top 5 at the CIF State Meet). Depth is the one cause for concern, but over the last three years this team has the 4th-best record of improvement out of all the schools in the countdown, and that suggests a very strong summer training culture. Despite losing 3 seniors from the team that finished 11th in Division 1, the returning 5K talent for the Blue Devils is strong enough for the database to rank them 2nd in the Sac-Joaquin section. With another good summer and a healthy top 3, this team will have a chance to reclaim the top 5 finish that eluded them last year.

1) Fiona O'Keeffe16:40.00
2) Sofia Castiglioni18:00.00
3) Abigail Fisk18:40.00
4) Jasmine Casillas19:26.00
5) Elise Chu19:37.00
Average Time: 18:28.60 Total Time: 1:32:23.00 1-5 Split: 2:57.00
6) Adria Lammers20:08.07
7) Hallie Lassiter20:22.00

5. Arroyo Grande

At first glance, it may be a bit surprising to see that the Eagles are the top-ranked Division 2 team in our countdown after finishing 9th last year. When you realize they have 6 of 7 back from that squad, plus a strong track record of year-to-year improvement, their placement becomes a bit easier to understand. Returning co-#1 runners Leza Cassidy and Talley Hill had strong track seasons, clocking 10:55 and 5:02, respectively; and the emergence of Malia Simon in the spring could help alleviate some of the team's depth issues. Division 2 is shaping up to be extremely competitive this fall, and we have no way to measure the current summer training for any team in the countdown, but the indicators I used to make this countdown say that Arroyo Grande will be right in the thick of things when the last weekend in November rolls around.

1) Leza Cassidy18:15.00
2) Talley Hill18:15.56
3) Haley Chavez18:40.46
4) Rosa Granados18:55.46
5) Angela Gemignani19:09.07
Average Time: 18:39.11 Total Time: 1:33:15.55 1-5 Split: 54.07
6) Malia Simon19:56.00