Let's consider an essential concept about cross country running, an aspect of the Law of Diminishing Returns" it is harder to improve when you're already highly trained. That is why my Improvement Ratings adjust for the level of success the team has - teams that are already competing at a high level are likely to make smaller overall gains. Looked at a different way, when Great Oak's boys improve 25 seconds on their returning top 5 3 Mile average from the previous year, as they did in 2017, it is a much bigger accomplishment than when an average team improves the same amount. The Wolfpack rank first in California for year-to-year 5K improvement over the past 3 seasons and 3rd in the state for 3 Mile improvement, which is remarkable for a program that has so many runners in the pipeline that are already well-trained.
That's why I expect the 2018 Great Oak squad to be in position to extend their Division 1 title streak, despite the loss of 3 seniors from last year's top 7, including their top 2. The Wolfpack returns 10 sub-17 5K runners from last fall, and in addition to that depth we have evidence of this program's typical tremendous improvement during track season. Chris Verdugo and Tyler Tickner both broke 4:20 in the 1600, leading 7 returners under 4:30 and 14 at 4:40 or faster. Tickner and Gabriel Abbes also went under 9:20, and were joined by 13 other returning runners at 10:00 or faster. This will NOT be an easy title defense for Great Oak, however, with Dana Hills bringing a very strong team and Dublin making the move to D1, in addition to other contenders. In addition, two of the state's best teams are in D2, so they will not race each other when NXN bids are on the line. It's entirely possible that the Wolfpack could win a 5th straight state championship and still not make it to Portland. Even with significant obstacles ahead, though, I wouldn't advise betting against this team.
| RANK | TIME | ATHLETE/TEAM | GRADE | MEET DATEPLACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:31.30 | 2020 | ||
| 2 | 15:35.50 | 2020 | ||
| 3 | 15:40.50 | 2019 | ||
| 4 | 15:54.80 | 2019 | ||
| 5 | 16:23.00 | 2019 | ||
| 6 | 16:30.20 | 2019 | ||
| 7 | 16:46.00 | 2020 | ||
| 8 | 16:47.50 | 2020 | ||
| 9 | 16:49.00 | 2019 | ||
| 10 | 16:58.40 | 2021 |
Team Statistics:
- 5K Improvement Rating: 1st
- 3 Mile Improvement Rating: 3rd
- 5K Returning Rankings: 2nd
- 3 Mile Returning Rankings: 2nd
- 3200 Returning Rankings: 3rd
- 1600 Returning Rankings: 1st