Aptos is a perennial power in the Central Coast Section, and yet this year's team was surprisingly hard to rank. On the one hand, the Mariners won a commanding victory in the CCS Division 3 race and finished 2nd in the CIF State Meet, with only one senior in their top 7 - all of that indicates a very strong team this fall. On the other hand, our statistical measures don't like this squad at all. We use team track results as one way to gauge year-round improvement, and Aptos doesn't grade out well there (45th in CA for team 1600, much lower in the 3200). Our custom Improvement Rating returns average also puts this team in the middle of the pack; after averaging 18:37 among their top 5 returners from the 2015 season, the Mariners posted a team average of 18:49 this past fall - even with the addition of two strong freshmen to the top 7.
This is probably just a consequence of how Aptos approached the 2016 season, and to a certain extent all seasons - they sat out many of the early-season invitationals (which often boost stats), preferring to emerge later in the season with a rested and well-trained group. My gut feeling is that this is WAY too low for the Mariners, but because this is a stats-driven exercise they end up in the lead-off spot. Just don't be surprised when Aptos shows up for the last two meets of the season, the way they always seem to do.
2017 Returning Stats:
- 5K Ranking: 19th
- 3-Year 5K Improvement Rating: 18th
- 5-Year 5K Improvement Rating: 30th
The 30 Countdown teams from each gender were determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2016 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2016 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August, as well.
- Returning team rankings from the 2016 CIF state meet
- Returning team rankings from each section
- A little bit of "gut feeling"