Bailey McCraner leads a Cathedral Catholic girls team that might have been overlooked in the success of their boys' team last fall.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of racing in late August. The goal here isn't necessarily to predict the top 30 teams in the state, and certainly not the exact order - there are WAY too many variables in play to be that accurate before the season starts! Instead, these are teams that we expect to have an impact on the upcoming season, in their sections and in their state-wide divisions.
The 30 teams from each gender were determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2016 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2016 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August, as well.
- Returning team rankings from the 2016 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"
Today we take a look at the handful of teams that just missed making the countdown. These teams could very well end up in the top 25 by the end of the season, and a couple of them are definitely sleepers to watch this season!
Girls #CountdownToXC Honorable Mention & Sleeper Teams
Cathedral Catholic (Team Page)
Return 6 of 7 runners from the squad that finished 5th in Division 3 last year, and this team has a real chance to be in the top 25 by season's end.
Vista Del Lago (SJ) (Team Page)
7th in Division 3 last year and had some solid team results on the track this spring.
Sonoma Academy (Team Page)
Have 6 runners back and arguably the best 1-2 combination among smaller schools in the state.
San Clemente (Team Page)
Will have a senior-heavy team, and had eye-opening 3200 results during the spring (5th best in California) that should indicate strong year-round improvement.
Lowell (Team Page)
Dominance in the San Francisco section should continue, but can the 2017 squad move up in the Division 1 standings?
Oakland Tech (Team Page)
Has a stranglehold on the Oakland Section's bid to the state meet, where they finished 17th in Division 1 last year - and they have a core of 4 youngsters back for 2 years from that squad.
Oak Ridge (Team Page)
After the spring season the Denners had, if this team can develop more depth they can be very good.
San Juan Hills (Team Page)
If spring results can indicate a big jump forward in the fall, this team is one to watch: their returning runners rank 17th in CA in team 1600 and 7th in team 3200.
