Summer isn't just for training! Every summer I research the top cross country teams for the upcoming cross country season, partly because it helps me get prepared for the fall and partly because I'm a little obsessed with the sport and I can't help myself. It's also fun to publish the information I gather, so I can share my perspective with the cross country community and hear back from folks that see things differently.
I started doing countdowns in North Carolina in 2011, did one for Texas in 2014, and began the California version in 2015. California is the toughest state to predict, by far! Taking into account the different course lengths and distances is difficult, and there's just SO MUCH DATA. We've worked hard over the last two years to get as many performances into the database as possible, and that makes stats-driven returning rankings richer - it's possible to see whose JV & Frosh-Soph runners are poised to step up and fill spots on the Varsity vacated by the Class of 2017. On the other hand, there are weird gaps in the data set up by the state's wide course variances. For example, many of the state's best teams only run 5K at the state meet, and if they don't have 5 returning runners from that meet they won't show in those rankings. If you consider track season to be very important for tracking year-round development (as I do), that's another variable thrown into the mix.
I've been compiling data from several sources to give me the best chance of identifying the top teams for the upcoming season. Even then, the #CountdownToXC is not meant to be a definitive ranking; rather, it's intended to highlight 60 squads that are likely to have an impact on the 2017 cross country season. I certainly won't get the perfectly correct top 30 teams into the list, let alone in the exact order where they belong - but the challenge of trying is part of the fun for me! I hope you enjoy it, as well, and I hope it fuels your excitement for the upcoming season as it does mine.