The 30th anniversay of the Foot Locker National Cross Country Championships expects to be a thriller with favorites, wildcards, and past champions in the field. This is the first year that the meet has had to seriously compete for the recruitment of the nation's best athletes for its event with the Nike Cross Nationals adding individual qualifiers to its meet format. There were be several top national harriers either missing or racing on tired legs with a second straight race on the West Coast this weekend after competing in Portland last Saturday for NXN. Many of the nation's best are still coming to Balboa Park as the history of this meet and the title of being a Foot Locker Finalist still holds great significance and pride to the vast majority of high school runners.
Photo by Margot Kelly
The unpredictable nature of the girls race on a yearly basis will make it a tough call for any expert, but its a good bet to not expect the defending champion to repeat if going based off recent history. 2007 national champion Ashley Brasovan from Florida will attempt to end this streak though and bounce back from a fall and subpar South regional race in Charlotte, but will have tough challengers including two past champions in South region champion Kathy Kroeger of Tennessee and West region champion Jordan Hasay of California.
Photo by Don Rich
Other regional champions ran very well two weeks ago to position themselves as strong contenders with Northeast region champ Emily Jones of Massachussetts and Midwest region champ Meghan Goethals of Michigan.
Photo by Brandon Miles
A national champion could come from the South region for the third straight year, but not be either of the past champions Brasovan of Kroeger as Megan Marisco from Virginia challenged Kroeger all the way to the finish in the regional race, while Texan Chelsey Sveinsson should have plenty of confidence after her NXN victory this past weekend.
Photo by Don Rich
Many of the favorites in the boys race are foreign-born high school runners hoping to achieve the dream which any American kid would love to experience in winning a Foot Locker national cross country title. Northeast champ Solomon Haile (MD) was born in Ethiopia, Midwest champ Jakub Zivec (MN) was born in Czechslovakia, and Midwest runner-up Joseph Manilafasha (CO) was born in Burundi. Leading the group of American born runners is pair each from the West region in Christopher Schwartz of California and Trevor Dunbar of Alaska as well as the South region in Bill Matthews and Matt Sonnenfeldt both from Tennessee.
Photo by Fran McLaughlin
Haile and Zivec have been unbeatable for much of this season with the exception of Zivec's close loss last weekend to Reed Conner of Texas at the Nike Cross Nationals. This will be Zivec's fourth post-season race in as many weeks after winning the NXN Midwest Regional and Foot Locker Midwest Regional prior to the NXN championship race. Haile has shattered course records and ran away from the competition all season long including taking down the historic Van Cortlandt Park 2.5 mile course at the Manhattan Invitational. Haile had the most convincing win out of any of the regional champions, so the Sherwood High School senior should be the slight favorite for Saturday.
Photo by Margot Kelly
If Dunbar won, a national champion would still come from an athlete born from outside of the mainland U.S. as the Alaskan will be a fan favorite for most race spectators. Dunbar gained celebrity youtube status thanks to an online streaming video of his 9:02 3200 meter time trial on his school track last month in a snowstorm. Dunbar was defeated though in a West regional race which he led most of the way by Californian Christopher Schwartz, who is one of four returning boys finalists. Schwartz was one of the last finishers in the 2007 finals with a 37th place finish, but could potentially pull off a miraculous one year turn around to go from near last to first based off an impressive regional win at Mt. Sac.
Photo by Brandon Miles
The effect of Nike Cross Nationals drawing several top individuals from across the country should be apparent especially from strong distance running states which were able to qualify many individuals for NXN such as New York, California, and Texas. Without all of the stars from those states, the regions which pull from those states may have depth drop-offs compared to past years.
The South Region girls appear to be favorites to win the region team title with two past national champions in Kroeger and Brasovan, a rising national star in runner-up Marsico, and NXN individual champion Sveinnson. The Northeast girls look strong through three with Jones and New York girls Shelby Greany and Aisling Cuffee, but will need the next pack of qualifiers to close the gap to challenge the South region. Both regions had matching low team scores of 42 points in the 2007 finals, but the Northeast girls won on a sixth runner tiebreaker.
The Midwest boys won big in 2007 with a 30 point separation between them and second place Northeast Region. It could be another decisive win for the region with all ten of their qualifiers capable of finishing in the top half of the field with top 20 finishes. The states of Colorado and Indiana will play a large role in the region's team success with four qualifiers from Colorado and three qualifiers from Indiana.
The rankings below are based mainly on regional race performances as more of a pre-meet rankings rather than a predictions, which would throw in a few more gambles and wild card picks.
Boys Predictions
1. Solomon Haile MD 15:04
2. Jakub Zivec MN 15:14
3. Joseph Manilafasha CO - 15:18
4. Christopher Schwartz CA - 15:20
5. Trevor Dunbar AK - 15:23
6. Bill Matthews TN 15:29
7. Matt Sonnenfeldt TN 15:33
8. Evan Appel CO 15:35
9. Futsum Zeinasellassie IN 15:36
10. Brian Shrader AZ 15:38
11. Dylan Sorensen IN 15:38
12. Drew Shields IN 15:40
13. Andrew Berberick CO 15:41
14. C.J. Brown TX 15:45
15. Thomas Porter VA 15:46
16. Joseph Demoor CO 15:47
17. Wyatt Landrum CA 15:48
18. Danny Pawola IL 15:50
19. Steve Sulkin IL 15:50
20. Tyler Upland NJ 15:51
21. Shane Moskowitz WA 15:52
22. Joe Whelan NY 15:53
23. Andrew Springer RI 15:54
24. James Cameron CA 15:54
25. Leoule Degfae VA 15:56
26. Cody Helbling ID 15:58
27. Philip Wood PA 15:59
28. Tyre Johnson CA 15:59
29. Alex Ott VA 16:01
30. Zachary Torres CA 16:03
31. Kyle Satterwhite VA 16:04
32. Steve Magnuson AZ 16:05
33. Michael Moverman MA 16:07
34. Clint McKelvey TN 16:07
35. Phil Galebach MA 16:08
36. Chase Rathke TX 16:08
37. Evan Hibbs TX 16:09
38. Brett Johnson NJ 16:10
39. George Galasso NJ 16:10
40. Ben Furcht PA 16:13
Region Team Predictions
1. Midwest 31 (2-3-8-9-11)
2. West 57 (4-5-10-17-21)
3. South 67 (6-7-14-15-25)
3. Northeast 93 (1-20-22-23-27)
Girls Predictions
1. Emily Jones MA 17:47
2. Kathy Kroeger TN 17:55
3. Megan Marsico VA 17:57
4. Megan Goethals MI 17:59
5. Chelsey Sveinsson TX 18:01
6. Ashley Brasovan FL 18:02
7. Jordan Hasay CA 18:03
8. Shelby Greany NY 18:04
9. Aisling Cuffe NY 18:05
10. Emily Sisson MO 18:06
11. Chelsea Oswald OH 18:13
12. Alex Dunne CA 18:14
13. Allie McLaughlin CO 18:16
14. Danielle Menlove UT 18:20
15. Becca Addison MI 18:21
16. Lauren Smith TX 18:23
17. Amanda Russell TX 18:23
18. Melanie Thompson NJ 18:26
19. Ashlie Decker IA 18:26
20. Kayla Hale FL 18:29
21. Chelsea Ley NJ 18:29
22. Katie Kellner NJ 18:30
23. Kristin Kasper MA 18:31
24. Jessica Zangmeister OH 18:32
25. Jessica Tonn AZ 18:33
26. Erin Cawley NY 18:34
27. Emily Lipari NY 18:35
28. Megan Morgan CA 18:35
29. Laura Vigilante NJ 18:36
30. Jennifer Bergman CA 18:42
31. Lindsay Flanagan IL 18:43
32. Shalaya Kipp UT 18:46
33. Kimberly Spano NC 18:54
34. Ashley Isham TX 18:56
35. Jordan Tomecek MI 18:59
36. Sheree Shea CA 19:00
37. Adrianne Soo NC 19:02
38. Diane Robison MO 19:07
39. Taylor Wallace OR 19:10
40. Jacque Taylor CA 19:15
Region Team Predictions
1. South 32 (2-3-5-6-16)
2. Midwest 53 (4-10-11-13-15)
3. Northeast 57 (1-8-9-18-21)
3. West 86 (7-12-14-25-28)