The Dolphins have to replace three star seniors and a legendary coach, but they are still capable of challenging in Division 1.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
Even in a state loaded with huge programs that always have runners ready to step up, there are only a handful of programs that could lose 3 seniors off of the 2nd-place team in Division 1 and still be in the top 5 in the state overall. How many programs could graduate 3 seniors and also have a coaching change, and still be in the top 3? That's where Dana Hills lands in our countdown, with long-time assistant Craig Dunn taking over for Tim Butler, who has been at the helm for the Dolphins for 36 years. As for the returning runners, Dana Hills is still loaded with talent, starting with Jack Landgraf - he ran 9:04 and 4:19 on the track and looks ready to fill the shoes of Mason Coppi and Jake Ogden. The one vulnerability that the Dolphins had to address this summer is depth: they have a pretty substantial gap in returning times between their 4th and 5th runners, although the returning 5-7 (and beyond) are quite close to each other. Track season may have already shown improvement on that front, as this team had the 3rd-best team 3200 results in the state with 6 returners under 10 minutes. If runners like David Fabian and Simon Fuller can build on their solid spring seasons, the Dolphins could end with another podium finish in 2016.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 3rd (3 Miles)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 4th (3rd 3200, 5th 1600)
- Improvement Rating: 3rd
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating: a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August.
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"