The Stallions' potential is so bright, they have to wear shades - but potential alone doesn't get you out of the Southern Section and into the CIF State Meet.
Cross country is right around the corner, and we're celebrating by counting down to the start of the competitive fall season! Each day (except today!) we'll release one boys team and one girls team, counting down from 30 to 1 as we approach the beginning of real XC racing.
Today we kick off the full countdown with a bit of a surprise team, San Juan Hills. The Stallions rank 24th in the returning 3 Mile rankings, and they showed solid improvement during track season by rankings 17th in the state in the team 1600 rankings. This team also has good depth, with a 24-second 1-5 split and 33-second 1-6 split. The biggest thing missing for San Juan Hills is postseason experience: the Stallions didn't make it out of the Southern Section D2 prelims last year, and it will take a big step forward for them to advance to the state meet iin 2016. The improvement of Jacob Aries could be the key - the former #6 runner led the team in the 3200 during the spring season, clocking 9:45. Rising sophomore Daniel White broke 4:20 in the 1600, 2nd-best in California among freshmen, which shows that he has the potential to go sub-15 for 3 Miles and move closer to being an individual contender. It's hard to get to the state meet from the Southern Section, but this team has the potential to make waves in 2016 - and with only 2 seniors in the top seven this fall, the Stallions could be even better in 2017.
Ranking Data:
- Returning Team Ranking: 24th (3 Mile)
- Combined Spring Track Ranking: 20th (17th in 1600, 23rd in 3200)
- Improvement Rating: 27th
The #CountdownToXC is a data-driven set of team rankings determined using the following information:
- Returning Team 5K & 3 Mile Rankings from 2015 XC: carries the most weight
- Returning Team 1600 and 3200 Rankings from 2015 Outdoor: less weight, but important
- Improvement Rating:a long-term statistical evaluation of how each program improves from season to season. This custom metric compares a team's final team average from each season to their returning team average from the previous season, while also accounting for how highly-ranked the team was. As we continue to improve the depth and quality of our data in California, this measure should get stronger and stronger. Improvement ratings will be the subject of a separate article in August!
- Returning team from the 2015 CIF state meet
- A little bit of "gut feeling"