CIF State Championship Team Scoring Preview

Girls CIF State Championship Team Scoring Preview

Strictly by the Seeds

As a starting point, we scored the meet using only the seed marks that are listed in the performance list (see the full virtual meet using these marks).  Of course, the actual state meet rarely goes according to the seeding; some athletes might cruise in the section final, while others might have given their all just to get to the state meet; some might be hitting their stride perfectly, while others may be wearing down through the long postseason grind. Still, this helps us to identify the most likely contenders for team awards.  Using only the seeds, we get these five teams that are clearly separated from the rest:

Vacaville 29

Agoura 28

Carson 25

Oaks Christian 24

Great Oak 24

Max Points Scenario for Each Team

Next, we look at the reasonable maximum points that each contending team could achieve, if everything falls their way.  I looked at athletes that could be potential winners in events where they aren't seeded first, however unrealistic that might be in some cases.  It's important to note that some of these scenarios are mutually exclusive, so the final team scores could not actually happen this way.  However, this does give us a good sense of which teams have the highest ceiling and the ability to "outscore their seeds."

Carson 37

• Kaelin Roberts wins the 400 and the 200

Vacaville 33

• Jurnee Woodward wins both hurdle races

Oaks Christian 33

• Lauren Rain Williams wins 100 and 200, Carolyn Wilson wins 400

Agoura 30

• Tara Davis wins her three events

Great Oak 28

• Destiny Collins wins 1600 and 3200

Adjusting Seed Marks with Season Bests

Finally, I went through every event and changed the order using each athlete's season bests.  This isn't quite the same as the virtual meet using season bests, because that goes by team rather than by individual (also, if an athlete dropped one or more events at the sectional level that isn't reflected in the virtual meet).  Another note: only wind-legal marks in the 100, 200, 100H, LJ, and TJ were included here, although I did look at possibilities where windy performances were considered.  That gives us this outcome:

Carson 30

• 32 if Kaelin Roberts' top 200 time (NWI) is used

Vacaville 29

• 31 if Jurnee Woodard's top 100H time (NWI) is used

Oaks Christian 28

Great Oak 28

Agoura 26

My Prediction:

I don't think Kaelin Roberts will win the 200, but I DO think she'll run a lot faster than her seed time of 24.08.  Specifically, I think she'll score high enough in the 200 to lead Carson to the win.  However, if they falter in the 4x100, the door is open for at least two other teams, and possibly as many as 4, to win the title.  This is coing to be an exciting meet!

1. Carson

2. Vacaville

3. Oaks Christian

4. Agoura

5. Great Oak